Beware! Important Announcement Tomorrow, Its Impact Could Be Significant

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Indonesia’s inflation is expected to ease in March 2026, even as food price pressures remain high during the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to announce March 2026 inflation data tomorrow, Wednesday (1/4/2026).

The market consensus gathered by CNBC Indonesia from 12 institutions estimates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2026 will experience 0.60% inflation on a monthly basis (month-to-month/mtm), with a median annual inflation of 3.68% (year-on-year/yoy).

Meanwhile, core inflation in March 2026 is expected to be at 2.65% yoy.

For context, in February 2026, Indonesia experienced 0.68% inflation (mtm), while annually it was recorded at 4.76% (yoy), and core inflation reached 2.63% (yoy).

Price pressures in March are believed to still be influenced by seasonal factors from Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, which typically drive up demand for food, transportation, and various household needs. Economist at Bank Maybank Indonesia, Juniman, assesses that these conditions are the main drivers of inflation this month.

“Price pressures this month are primarily driven by the impact of the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr celebrations. In addition, inflation in March is mainly triggered by rises in food prices such as rice, sugar, cooking oil, beef, chicken, eggs, red chillies, bird’s eye chillies, shallots, and garlic,” Juniman told CNBC Indonesia.

Juniman also added that the rise in non-subsidised fuel prices this month is mainly triggered by the increase in global oil prices amid the Iran-Israel and United States (US) war.

“The rise in non-subsidised fuel prices this month is mainly triggered by the increasing global oil prices as an impact of the Iran-Israel/US war. Meanwhile, in line with the decline in global gold prices, gold and jewellery prices also fell this month,” Juniman continued.

In agreement, Economist at Bank Danamon, Hosianna Evalita Situmorang, predicts that March 2026 inflation will ease.

“March 2026 inflation is expected to ease to 0.56% monthly and 3.64% annually, with core inflation rising slightly to 2.88% annually due to ongoing seasonal effects from Ramadan-Eid that typically boost demand for food, transportation, and services,” said Hosianna.

Economist at Bank Permata, Josua Pardede, explained that the drivers of March inflation mainly come from the food, travel, recreation, and transportation groups.

In the food group, the largest contributions are expected from red chillies, bird’s eye chillies, broiler chicken, and broiler eggs, while garlic prices are still declining. Compared to February, March prices are seen to rise in rice, chicken, beef, eggs, red chillies, bird’s eye chillies, sugar, and cooking oil, whereas garlic falls.

“In addition, the government-regulated price group is expected to record inflation again in line with the rise in transportation demand during the homecoming flow and Eid holidays,” he said.

Referring to data from the National Strategic Food Price Information Centre (PIHPSN), several food prices are indeed still rising in March 2026.

The price of red bird’s eye chillies surged 12.21% to an average of Rp 85,676 per kg. The price of large red chillies also rose 12.57% to Rp 49,645/kg.

Increases also occurred in the animal protein group. Beef prices rose 2.71% to an average of Rp 143,320 per kg. Egg prices rose 3.52% to Rp 33,179 per kg, while chicken prices increased 1.65% to Rp 42,376 per kg.

In the government-regulated price group, fuel price increases are also adding pressure to inflation in March 2026.

Several fuel providers such as PT Pertamina (Persero), Shell Indonesia, BP-AKR, and PT Vivo Energy Indonesia have collectively raised non-subsidised fuel product prices. These price adjustments apply from 1 March 2026, although for BP-AKR it starts from 3 March 2026.

For example, non-subsidised fuel prices in DKI Jakarta. For the Pertamax product as of 1 March 2026, the price rises to Rp 12,300 per litre from previously Rp 11,800 per litre. The Pertamax Turbo price also rises to Rp 13,100 per litre from previously Rp 12,700 per litre.

Then, the Pertamax Green 95 price also rises to Rp 12,900 per litre from previously Rp 12,450 per litre. The Dexlite fuel price rises to Rp 14,200 per litre from previously Rp 13,250 per litre.