Beware Global Oil Prices, Purbaya: If the Average Reaches US$92, the Deficit Could Be 3.6% of GDP

Be wary of global oil prices, Purbaya: If the average reaches US$92, the deficit could be 3.6% of GDP. The following text transported is the cleaned article’s translation. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the ministry has conducted a risk simulation (stress test) on the possibility of a surge or pressure in global crude oil prices that could widen the 2026 APBN (Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara). The scenario is based on the potential oil price spike driven by geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict and the US–Israel situation. Purbaya explained that preliminary calculations show that if the world oil price averages US$92 per barrel over a year, it would push the APBN deficit to as much as 3.6% of GDP (PDB). This is because macro assumptions in the 2026 APBN set the oil price at US$70 per barrel. “We have exercised; if the annual average price is US$92, the deficit would be 3.6% of GDP. We will take steps to ensure it does not happen,” Purbaya said at a press conference at the Ministry of Finance, Jakarta, on Friday, 6 March 2026. Previously, Purbaya also reported a deficit of Rp 135.7 trillion in the APBN up to the end of February 2026, or 0.53% of GDP. The State Treasurer explained that with government expenditure realised at Rp 493.8 trillion, revenue was only Rp 358 trillion as of 28 February 2026. “In the first two months of 2026, tax collection rose by 30%, and we will ensure it remains stable going forward,” Purbaya said. He elaborated that the realised government spending of Rp 493.8 trillion came from central government expenditure of Rp 346.1 trillion and transfers to the regions (TKD) of Rp 147.7 trillion. Meanwhile, state revenue of Rp 358 trillion was contributed by tax receipts of Rp 245.1 trillion, customs and excise Rp 44.9 trillion, and non-tax state revenue (PNBP) of Rp 68 trillion. Going forward, Purbaya assured that various factors supporting national economic growth will continue to be monitored by the government through the Ministry of Finance to ensure they function well through the end of 2026. “So we will ensure all growth-supporting factors can function well,” he said.