BCA Profit Projected to Grow in 2026, Check BBCA Share Recommendations

JAKARTA — The performance prospects for PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) in 2026 are considered solid amidst the dynamics of interest rates and intense competition in the banking industry. Several analysts believe that Indonesia’s largest private bank remains supported by strong fundamentals, particularly driven by its dominance of low-cost funds and consistently high profitability.

CGS International research assessed that BCA is capable of maintaining stable performance despite pressure on net interest margins (NIM). Since the release of third-quarter 2025 results, management has signalled a decline in NIM this year.

CGS projects BCA’s net interest income to reach Rp 88.23 trillion in 2026, growing 3 per cent compared to 2025. Meanwhile, net profit is estimated to increase 5.7 per cent to Rp 60.82 trillion in 2026.

Profit growth in January was primarily supported by a 11 per cent year-on-year increase in non-interest income and a significant 54 per cent decline in provisioning expenses.

“The credit portfolio declined 1.3 per cent month-on-month, but this appears seasonal, given that over the past 10 years BBCA’s credit has typically contracted around 2 per cent month-on-month each January,” said CGS International analyst Handy Noverdanius in his research, quoted on Monday (9 March 2026).

On the funding side, BBCA’s liquidity remains strong. The ratio of low-cost funds or current account savings account (CASA) reached approximately 84.8 per cent, reflecting superior cost of funds advantages compared to peer banks. Meanwhile, the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is relatively low at 77.4 per cent.

This condition is considered one of the main factors maintaining the company’s profitability stability.

Furthermore, CGS believes BBCA still has room to increase the dividend payout ratio for the 2025 financial year, which could become a positive catalyst for share price movements.

CGS maintained an add or buy recommendation for BBCA shares with a price target of Rp 10,000 per share. This target reflects potential upside of approximately 43 per cent from the share price at the end of last year.

“We maintain our add recommendation, as we believe BBCA will still be able to record solid performance with strong fundamentals. Re-rating catalysts: loan yields and loan demand stronger than expected. Additionally, improvement in macro sentiment also has the potential to drive re-rating,” CGS research stated.

Meanwhile, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia maintained a buy recommendation for BBCA shares with a price target of Rp 8,600 per share.

Samuel Sekuritas analysts Prasetya Gunadi and Brandon Soedhiman believe the transaction-based funding strategy and CASA dominance will remain the main drivers of the company’s performance growth.

“BBCA continues to execute its transaction banking strategy and strong CASA-based funding approach to support stable profit growth,” Samuel Sekuritas stated in its research.

Samuel estimates BBCA’s credit can grow approximately 10–11 per cent in 2026. Net interest margins are projected to be in the range of 5.4–5.6 per cent, with credit costs around 40–50 basis points.

From a profitability perspective, BBCA’s net profit is estimated to increase approximately 7.4 per cent year-on-year to Rp 61.8 trillion in 2026, up from Rp 57.5 trillion in 2025.

Asset quality is also assessed to remain sound with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in the range of 1.6 per cent. This is supported by conservative risk management and strong provisioning buffers.

According to Bloomberg analyst consensus, the average price target for BBCA shares stands at Rp 10,208 per share. This projection reflects potential upside from current price levels. Thirty-six analysts provided buy recommendations, while 1 analyst recommended hold, affirming strong positive market sentiment towards BBCA’s prospects.