Bank Indonesia Stresses Fitch's Negative Outlook Does Not Reflect Indonesia's Economic Fundamentals

Jakarta — Bank Indonesia stresses that the adjustment of the sovereign credit rating outlook for Indonesia from Fitch Ratings to negative is believed not to reflect a deterioration in the nation’s fundamental economy. Indonesia’s economic prospects remain solid and resilient. Governor Perry Warjiyo said that Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are reflected in domestic growth that remains solid amid rising global uncertainty. Inflation remains controlled, including core inflation which remains low, and the rupiah continues to strengthen through exchange-rate stabilisation policy in the overseas non-deliverable forward market (offshore) as well as spot and DNDF transactions in the domestic market.

Perry explained that financial system stability remains well maintained, supported by adequate liquidity, bank capital that is kept at high levels, and low credit risk. Additionally, the broadening digitalisation of payment systems, underpinned by stable infrastructure, and a healthy industrial structure also support economic growth. For information, the outlook revision is driven by Fitch’s view of increasing policy uncertainty and concerns about the consistency and credibility of Indonesia’s policy. Despite the outlook adjustment, Fitch’s report still maintains Indonesia’s sovereign credit rating at BBB. Fitch states that the affirmation of Indonesia’s rating reflects global confidence in Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability with a solid medium-term growth outlook, a relatively low government debt-to-GDP ratio, and adequate external resilience. ‘The affirmation of Indonesia’s BBB rating reflects global confidence in Indonesia’s economic fundamentals which remain strong,’ said Warjiyo, quoted from his statement, Thursday, 5 March 2026.

The Bank also projects that Indonesia’s medium-term growth prospects remain solid and show an upward trend, supported by controlled inflation. In 2026, growth is projected to be in the range of 4.9-5.7 percent and to rise in 2027, with inflation staying within the target. Indonesia’s external resilience also remains strong amid global volatility, with the Balance of Payments healthy and underpinned by solid trade balance performance.

BI will continue to strengthen the policy mix to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability and to promote sustainable economic growth amid rising global uncertainty. This will be done in close synergy with the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) and the Government’s Asta Cita Programme, and will continue coordinating with the Government to strengthen policy communication to maintain market confidence.