Bank Indonesia Predicts Retail Sales Growth Ahead of Eid

Jakarta – Retail sales performance in Indonesia is forecast to increase in February 2026, in line with rising consumer spending ahead of Ramadan and preparations for the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) of Eid al-Fitr.

This is reflected in the results of Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey (SPE), which shows the Real Sales Index (IPR) for February 2026 is predicted to reach 233.5, representing year-on-year growth of 6.9 per cent.

The increase is driven in part by higher sales across several product categories, particularly vehicle spare parts and accessories, other household equipment, and clothing.

The rising demand ahead of Ramadan and Eid preparations is cited as one of the key factors driving the growth.

On a monthly basis, retail sales performance is also expected to strengthen. After contracting 2.7 per cent month-on-month in January 2026, growth in February 2026 is forecast to accelerate to 4.4 per cent.

The increase is supported by higher sales in information and communication equipment, motor vehicle fuel, and clothing categories.

Prior to entering this growth period, retail sales in January 2026 demonstrated continued year-on-year growth. Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey recorded the Real Sales Index for January 2026 at 223.6, up 5.7 per cent compared with the same period in the previous year.

According to the survey results, the increase was primarily driven by higher sales in culture and recreation goods, food, beverages and tobacco, and clothing subgroups.

The culture and recreation goods category recorded an index of 64.0 and grew 15.9 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, the food, beverages and tobacco category recorded an index of 315.9 and grew 8.1 per cent year-on-year.

The clothing subgroup recorded an index of 86.3 with year-on-year growth of 3.4 per cent.