Bank Indonesia Governor Confident First Quarter 2026 Economy Will Surge, Cites Key Indicators
Jakarta — Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo has projected that the nation’s elevated economic growth trajectory will continue into the first quarter of 2026, supported by rising consumption driven by a range of government stimulus measures and accommodative monetary policy.
The first three months of 2026 also feature several major national religious holidays, which are expected to boost economic activity, including Chinese New Year, Nyepi (Balinese Day of Silence), and Eid al-Fitr 1447 H.
“We see that Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter will remain high,” Perry said during a press teleconference on Thursday, 19 February 2026.
He added that the investment sector is also forecast to grow at a higher rate, driven by government investment. This includes the downstream processing of natural resources, as well as continued improvements in business confidence.
Beyond programmes supporting the real sector and downstream industries, Perry also expressed confidence that government programmes aimed at welfare and human development — such as the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) programme, the Red and White Village Cooperatives (KDMP), and various other initiatives — would contribute to economic growth.
“We are working in synergy with the Minister of Finance to drive the real sector, both through fiscal stimulus and from our side through monetary measures including various incentives and liquidity support, as well as jointly maintaining the stability of the rupiah exchange rate,” Perry said.
On the global landscape, Perry noted that the outlook for the global economy is trending towards a slowdown, with financial market uncertainty remaining elevated. World economic growth in 2026 is forecast to decelerate from 3.3 per cent in 2025 to 3.2 per cent, accompanied by divergent growth trajectories among nations.
The prospect of slowing global growth is primarily influenced by the impact of United States reciprocal tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The exception is the US economy, which is expected to strengthen, buoyed by substantial fiscal stimulus and high levels of investment, including investment related to artificial intelligence.
“Looking ahead, global economic uncertainty is forecast to remain elevated, requiring vigilance and strengthened policy responses to safeguard the domestic economy from global spillovers whilst driving higher growth,” he said.