Bank Indonesia Forecasts Retail Sales Growth in February 2026
Jakarta — Bank Indonesia, based on results from its Retail Sales Survey (SPE), forecasts an improvement in retail sales performance in February 2026, both year-on-year and month-on-month.
Ramdan Denny Prakoso, Executive Director of Bank Indonesia’s Communications Department, stated in Jakarta on Tuesday that this is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) for February 2026, which is projected to grow by 6.9 per cent year-on-year and 4.4 per cent month-on-month.
On an annual basis, retail sales performance in February 2026 is driven by increased sales across most groups, particularly spare parts and accessories (growing 13.6 per cent year-on-year), other household equipment (4.9 per cent year-on-year), and clothing (8.4 per cent year-on-year).
On a monthly basis, the increase in retail sales in February 2026 is primarily driven by information and communications equipment (2.5 per cent month-on-month), motor fuel (4.7 per cent month-on-month), and clothing (9.6 per cent month-on-month).
The increase in the Real Sales Index across most groups aligns with rising consumer demand during Ramadan and preparations for the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) of Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijri.
Regarding actual results for January 2026, the Real Sales Index grew 5.7 per cent year-on-year, primarily supported by growth in sales of cultural goods and recreation, as well as food, beverages, and tobacco, along with clothing.
Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, retail sales in January 2026 contracted by 2.7 per cent month-on-month in line with normalisation of consumer spending following the Christmas and New Year holidays.
Regarding prices, inflationary pressure for the coming three months (April 2026) is forecast to decline, whilst for the coming six months (July 2026) is forecast to increase. This is reflected in the General Price Expectations Index (IEH) for April 2026 at 153.9, lower compared to the IEH for March 2026 at 175.7, in line with price normalisation following Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijri celebrations.
Meanwhile, the IEH for July 2026 is forecast at 157.1, higher compared to the IEH for June 2026 at 156.3, driven by increased prices during the new school year.