Bali's Tourism Strategy to Survive Amid Geopolitical Crisis

Denpasar (ANTARA) - The global situation is currently far from stable, following the outbreak of conflict on 28 February 2026 involving the United States (US)-Israel against Iran. Even approaching the last week of March, there are no signs that tensions between the two sides are easing. Ceasefires and negotiations have yet to find a clear path forward. Geographically, the events are distant from Indonesia, but their effects are felt in the country, particularly in Bali, where the majority of the economy is driven by tourism activity. Tensions in the Middle East have led to airspace closures, hindering human mobility via air transport. Operators at Bali’s I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport recorded that from the first attack on Iran on 28 February to 6 March 2026, 64 international flight schedules—34 departures and 30 arrivals—were forced to be cancelled. Based on data from airlines collected by Angkasa Pura Indonesia at I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport, during that period, 8,187 international passengers intending to depart had to postpone their flights. The affected tourists typically transited through Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai before continuing to their home countries, such as the United States and European nations. Bali Governor Wayan Koster stated that due to the airspace closures, an estimated reduction of around 800 foreign tourists per day occurred. Flight traffic is now slowly resuming after Middle Eastern airspace was partially reopened, though in an unpredictable situation. Bali’s Mitigation The ideas of modern marketing experts, including Professor Philip Kotler from Northwestern University in the US and Professor Gary Armstrong from North Carolina University in the US, can at least serve as guidance on how marketing can drive economic activity during difficult times. In their book Principles of Marketing, 17th edition printed in 2018, the experts simply state attracting new markets and managing those that have long provided added value. From this concept, market diversification becomes one key to ensuring Bali’s tourism-driven economy remains sustainable. Emerging tourism markets, such as India, China, South Korea, Japan, and other Southeast Asian countries, offer hope to be further pursued. Indicators include the availability of direct flights to and from Bali via these countries, without transiting through the vulnerable Middle East region—Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi—located in the conflict zone. Another indicator is the increasing number of tourists from those countries visiting Bali. According to data from the Bali Provincial Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for 2025, arrivals from India ranked second with over 569,000, and China third with over 537,000. The second idea is to maintain traditional markets that have consistently provided positive impacts from foreign tourist visits to Bali, namely Australia. The southern neighbour of Indonesia has consecutively topped foreign tourist arrivals in Bali since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2025, tourists from the Land of the Kangaroo contributed over 1.6 million. Looking at percentage increases, arrivals from China, South Korea, and Japan were notably high, at 19.83%, 17.91%, and 17.96% respectively in 2025 compared to 2024. Throughout 2025, a total of 6.94 million foreign tourists visited Bali, an increase of 9.72% from 2024. One current challenge is to open wider direct flight access between Bali and Japan. Previously, airlines from the Land of the Rising Sun operated direct flights to Bali, but they have now stopped, with only Garuda Indonesia providing service.