Bali Begins to Outpace Dubai, Moving Towards Global Capital Safe Haven

DENPASAR – March 2026 marks a new chapter in Bali’s economic narrative. As the global geopolitical map becomes increasingly volatile with escalating conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States, transforming Middle Eastern airspace into restricted zones for civilian aviation, property activity on the Island of Dewata is paradoxically showing signs of anomaly.

In theory, Bali should have experienced a slowdown due to disrupted global connectivity. However, ground reality tells a different story.

The risk profile for property investment in Bali is now considered significantly more promising compared to Dubai or Riyadh, which face threats of missile strikes. Lev Kroll, Chief Executive Officer of Nuanu Creative City, acknowledged that the Middle Eastern crisis has directly impacted market calculations.

Airspace disruptions in Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Oman have triggered a wave of cancellations amongst affluent European tourists who typically rely on transit through these major hubs. “Prospective investors from Europe must travel through Dubai or Doha to reach Bali. When these routes are considered unsafe, visit cancellations become a logical consequence,” Kroll told Kompas.com exclusively on Monday (9 March 2026).

However, Kroll noted a notable phenomenon: short-term visit cancellations have not deterred long-term investment interest. As stability in the Gulf weakens, investors view Bali as offering high yields with significantly lower geopolitical risk.

Research data from Colliers Indonesia strengthens this thesis. By the end of 2025, Bali’s hotel supply had reached 63,000 rooms with occupancy rates remaining solid at 68-72 per cent. Meanwhile, the retail sector remained expansive, marked by international brands continuing to penetrate the Seminyak and Canggu areas. This optimism demonstrates that Bali’s appeal transcends fears of global crisis.

However, this market optimism soon encountered increasingly stringent domestic regulatory barriers. The enactment of Regional Regulation (Perda) Number 4 of 2026 on Controlling the Conversion of Productive Land and Prohibiting Land Ownership Transfer through Nominees signalled that Bali was conducting internal “housekeeping”.