Azka Aufary Ramli: Global Economy Vulnerable to Shocks, Business Strategies Must Be More Defensive

In the current situation, geopolitical factors are no longer external variables but have become core drivers of the global economy. Regional conflicts, energy tensions, and the fragmentation of international trade are seen as pushing energy price volatility, disrupting global supply chains, and hindering the pace of inflation decline.

“The business world must understand that geopolitics today is part of business risk management. This is no longer a national issue, but a corporate one,” emphasised Azka Aufary Ramli, Chairman of HIPPI South Jakarta.

Furthermore, Azka views that global central bank policies that still tend to hold high interest rates will impact: limited liquidity, expensive capital costs, and delays in business expansion. This poses a serious challenge for business actors, especially in developing countries like Indonesia.

In his analysis as an observer of international political economy, Azka highlights that the world today is moving in a multi-speed economy pattern, where:

• The United States is still driven by the technology and AI sectors

• Europe is experiencing growth stagnation

• China faces structural pressures

• India and South Asia are becoming new growth engines

“Globalisation today is no longer uniform. Each region has its own growth rhythm. This opens opportunities but also increases the complexity of business strategies,” he explained.

Azka also highlighted the development of artificial intelligence (AI) as a disruptive factor with two sides:

• Driving productivity and efficiency

• Potentially creating bubbles and new inequalities

“AI is a game changer, but without good risk management, it can also become a source of new instability in the global economic system,” he added.

As Chairman of HIPPI South Jakarta, Azka urged entrepreneurs to adopt more adaptive and defensive strategies, including:

• Strengthening cash flow and operational efficiency

• Avoiding aggressive expansion without risk mitigation

• Integrating geopolitical analysis into business planning

• Seeking opportunities in resilient sectors such as digital, energy, and community-based economies

“The current era demands that entrepreneurs not only be business-savvy but also sensitive to global dynamics. Adaptation and resilience are the main keys,” Azka concluded.