Asia's oil demand to climb 500,000 bpd until 2010
Asia's oil demand to climb 500,000 bpd until 2010
HOUSTON (Dow Jones): Oil demand in 10 Asian countries, excluding Japan, will grow by 500,000 barrels a day per year for the next 10 years, according to the chief economist for the Center for Global Energy Studies.
"Some 400 million more people will live in China, India and Indonesia by 2010. Oil demand for the 10 Asian 'tigers' will be 19 million bpd in 2010," said Leo Drollas, deputy director and chief economist at the London think-tank.
The Asian tigers, as defined by Drollas, are India, China, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Current annual oil demand in those 10 countries is estimated at 14 million bpd, he said. Drollas was among the speakers Friday at an energy conference sponsored by the Asia Society of Texas along with Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy.
"Over 40 percent of the Middle East's incremental oil exports between now and 2010 will be heading to these Asian tigers," Drollas added.
He views Japan's impact on future world oil demand as "neutral," given its economic problems. "The chances of things getting worse are a lot more than the chances of things getting better," he said.
Robert Manning, Asia Studies director for the Council on Foreign Relations, said he was more optimistic than Drollas regarding Japan.
"I think there are structural changes in Japan," Manning said, adding, "The biggest problem is political. Japan is also a mature economy so it's more energy efficient than other Asian countries."
Regarding Asian's recovery from its economic crisis of 1998 and 1999, Manning said he sees Asia in a tentative state of recovery.
"Where we are now is a slightly deceptive sense of recovery. The Asian financial sectors have not really made the structural changes that immunize themselves," Manning said of future economic woes.
"After 2002 to 2003, I think it will be a little more stable, particularly if we continue to see oil prices around the $20-a- barrel range," he said.