Asia's oil demand to climb 500,000 bpd until 2010<\/p>\n
HOUSTON (Dow Jones): Oil demand in 10 Asian countries,
\nexcluding Japan, will grow by 500,000 barrels a day per year for
\nthe next 10 years, according to the chief economist for the
\nCenter for Global Energy Studies.<\/p>\n
\"Some 400 million more people will live in China, India and
\nIndonesia by 2010. Oil demand for the 10 Asian 'tigers' will be
\n19 million bpd in 2010,\" said Leo Drollas, deputy director and
\nchief economist at the London think-tank.<\/p>\n
The Asian tigers, as defined by Drollas, are India, China,
\nIndonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines,
\nSingapore and Hong Kong.<\/p>\n
Current annual oil demand in those 10 countries is estimated
\nat 14 million bpd, he said. Drollas was among the speakers Friday
\nat an energy conference sponsored by the Asia Society of Texas
\nalong with Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for
\nPublic Policy.<\/p>\n
\"Over 40 percent of the Middle East's incremental oil exports
\nbetween now and 2010 will be heading to these Asian tigers,\"
\nDrollas added.<\/p>\n
He views Japan's impact on future world oil demand as
\n\"neutral,\" given its economic problems. \"The chances of things
\ngetting worse are a lot more than the chances of things getting
\nbetter,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Robert Manning, Asia Studies director for the Council on
\nForeign Relations, said he was more optimistic than Drollas
\nregarding Japan.<\/p>\n
\"I think there are structural changes in Japan,\" Manning said,
\nadding, \"The biggest problem is political. Japan is also a mature
\neconomy so it's more energy efficient than other Asian
\ncountries.\"<\/p>\n
Regarding Asian's recovery from its economic crisis of 1998
\nand 1999, Manning said he sees Asia in a tentative state of
\nrecovery.<\/p>\n
\"Where we are now is a slightly deceptive sense of recovery.
\nThe Asian financial sectors have not really made the structural
\nchanges that immunize themselves,\" Manning said of future
\neconomic woes.<\/p>\n
\"After 2002 to 2003, I think it will be a little more stable,
\nparticularly if we continue to see oil prices around the $20-a-
\nbarrel range,\" he said.<\/p>",
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