Asian developing economies poised for higher growth in 2004: ADB
Asian developing economies poised for higher growth in 2004: ADB
Agence France-Presse, Manila
Asia's developing economies are expected to post higher-than-
expected average growth of 5.7 percent in 2003 and 6.2 percent
next year, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast on Monday.
Tadao Chino, the Japanese president of the Manila-based bank,
said the economies were expected to shrug off fallout from the
Iraq war, SARS epidemic, volatile oil prices and terrorism to
chalk up higher growth in the next two years.
"Developing Asia will remain the fastest growing region," he
said, according to the text of remarks made in Tokyo made
available here.
The ADB, which tracks growth of more than 41 developing
economies in Asia, had earlier projected the region would grow at
5.3 percent this year but Chino said it should now be higher at
5.7 percent, followed by 6.2 percent in 2004 and 6.3 percent in
2005.
"The outlook for a rebound in the industrialized countries in
2004-2005 and the resilience demonstrated by developing Asia in
2003 indicate the region is poised for higher growth over the
next two years," he said.
Chino did not give a breakdown of figures for individual
economies.
He said Asia's economic outlook should become less vulnerable
to downturns in the industrialized countries as China-led intra-
regional trade expanded and the regional economies focused on
policies to spur domestic demand.
Exports from East, Southeast and South Asia to China had grown
rapidly during the first half of 2003.
"The growth of intra-regional trade poses opportunities and
challenges for the rest of Asia," Chino said, pointing out that
the countries need to raise productivity and competitiveness
through major structural reforms over the medium term.
"In turn, these will accelerate growth over the medium to long
term," he said.
In a September report, the ADB had raised China's GDP growth
forecast for 2004 from 7.6 percent to 7.9 percent while growth
for this year in the world's most populous nation was increased
from 7.3 percent to 7.8 percent.
Alongside China, the ADB had also revised upwards its 2003
forecasts for Thailand, to 6.0 percent from 5.0 percent, for
Pakistan, to 5.1 percent from 4.5 percent, and for Kazakhstan, to
9.5 percent from 6.0 percent.
Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2003 was cut to 0.5
percent from 2.3 while South Korea's was lowered to 3.1 percent
from 4.0 percent.
Chino on Monday also cited several "distinct" features of the
Asian developing economies, including the critical role of
domestic consumption as a major determinant of GDP growth.
Accumulation of substantive international reserves by various
countries also offered a buffer against external shocks, he said.