Asia still torn by conflict, measured optimism in Korea
Asia still torn by conflict, measured optimism in Korea
LONDON (AFP): Asia is still wracked by conflict, from a dangerous deterioration of security in Indonesia to the India- Pakistan nuclear stand-off, but the easing of tension on the Korean peninsula is cause for measured optimism, the IISS think tank said on Thursday.
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said military spending in the region rose substantially this year and would continue to do so as long as fundamental insecurities persisted.
Military spending in East Asia and Australasia rose six percent to US$135 billion. China alone spent $40 billion while India hiked its defense budget by 20 percent to nearly $14 billion.
The IISS painted a gloomy picture of South Asia in its annual report, while also sounding the alarm about Indonesia, Islamic separatism in the Philippines and the resurfacing of ethnic rivalries in the Pacific.
"Relations between India and Pakistan remain tense and terrorism continues in Kashmir. The interminable war in Sri Lanka continues to drain the country's human and material capital," said the report.
It said there was no end in sight to the conflict in Afghanistan, and pointed to the steadily growing violence in the Central Asian republics involving government forces, Islamic fighters and drug gangs.
Despite persistent fears of a South Asian arms race, IISS judged India and Pakistan's nuclear capabilities to be "little changed" during the year.
India is still far from acquiring the capabilities laid out in its ambitious 1999 nuclear doctrine, with only "modest steps" being taken towards improving nuclear delivery systems.
Pakistan's missile arsenal, meanwhile, has continued to strengthen, with the 2,400-kilometer Shaheen-2 ready for flight tests and a series of other missiles at different stages of development.
The report said the security situation in Indonesia continued to deteriorate, pointing to an upsurge of sectarian violence as well as separatism in the northern region of Aceh and in West Papua.
"The separatist movements appeared to have been at least been temporarily contained, however there is sporadic violence that could worsen if no substantive political progress is made," said the IISS.
But there were few signs the Christian-Muslim violence in the Maluku islands, which has claimed thousands of lives this year, would abate.
"The security forces seem unable to restore calm and the outlook is bleak," said the report.
The IISS also expressed concern at the upswing in Islamic separatist violence in the Philippines after four years of relative calm, as well as the eruption of long-standing ethnic rivalries in the Pacific nations of Fiji and the Solomon Islands.
The report, however, painted a rosier picture in North Asia. While China continued to build up its military capability to alter the strategic balance with Taiwan, it was unlikely to follow through on its repeated threats to invade the island as it was preoccupied with reforming its economy and suppressing dissent at home, the report said.
"Military confrontation over Taiwan seems a remote possibility, provided the key actors remain preoccupied by their other priorities," the report added.
The IISS said the first ever inter-Korean summit in June had caused significant reverberations although it pointed out there was no military dialogue yet between Cold War enemies North and South Korea.
As North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il opens up his country to the world he could gradually scale down the huge defense spending and devote more funds to economic development, said the report.
"Such a shift, however, could strain relations between himself and the military on whom he depends for support," it cautioned.