Asia still torn by conflict, measured optimism in Korea

Asia still torn by conflict, measured optimism in Korea

LONDON (AFP): Asia is still wracked by conflict, from a
dangerous deterioration of security in Indonesia to the India-
Pakistan nuclear stand-off, but the easing of tension on the
Korean peninsula is cause for measured optimism, the IISS think
tank said on Thursday.

The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies
(IISS) said military spending in the region rose substantially
this year and would continue to do so as long as fundamental
insecurities persisted.

Military spending in East Asia and Australasia rose six
percent to US$135 billion. China alone spent $40 billion while
India hiked its defense budget by 20 percent to nearly $14
billion.

The IISS painted a gloomy picture of South Asia in its annual
report, while also sounding the alarm about Indonesia, Islamic
separatism in the Philippines and the resurfacing of ethnic
rivalries in the Pacific.

"Relations between India and Pakistan remain tense and
terrorism continues in Kashmir. The interminable war in Sri Lanka
continues to drain the country's human and material capital,"
said the report.

It said there was no end in sight to the conflict in
Afghanistan, and pointed to the steadily growing violence in the
Central Asian republics involving government forces, Islamic
fighters and drug gangs.

Despite persistent fears of a South Asian arms race, IISS
judged India and Pakistan's nuclear capabilities to be "little
changed" during the year.

India is still far from acquiring the capabilities laid out in
its ambitious 1999 nuclear doctrine, with only "modest steps"
being taken towards improving nuclear delivery systems.

Pakistan's missile arsenal, meanwhile, has continued to
strengthen, with the 2,400-kilometer Shaheen-2 ready for flight
tests and a series of other missiles at different stages of
development.

The report said the security situation in Indonesia continued
to deteriorate, pointing to an upsurge of sectarian violence as
well as separatism in the northern region of Aceh and in West
Papua.

"The separatist movements appeared to have been at least been
temporarily contained, however there is sporadic violence that
could worsen if no substantive political progress is made," said
the IISS.

But there were few signs the Christian-Muslim violence in the
Maluku islands, which has claimed thousands of lives this year,
would abate.

"The security forces seem unable to restore calm and the
outlook is bleak," said the report.

The IISS also expressed concern at the upswing in Islamic
separatist violence in the Philippines after four years of
relative calm, as well as the eruption of long-standing ethnic
rivalries in the Pacific nations of Fiji and the Solomon Islands.

The report, however, painted a rosier picture in North Asia.
While China continued to build up its military capability to
alter the strategic balance with Taiwan, it was unlikely to
follow through on its repeated threats to invade the island as it
was preoccupied with reforming its economy and suppressing
dissent at home, the report said.

"Military confrontation over Taiwan seems a remote
possibility, provided the key actors remain preoccupied by their
other priorities," the report added.

The IISS said the first ever inter-Korean summit in June had
caused significant reverberations although it pointed out there
was no military dialogue yet between Cold War enemies North and
South Korea.

As North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il opens up his country to the
world he could gradually scale down the huge defense spending and
devote more funds to economic development, said the report.

"Such a shift, however, could strain relations between himself
and the military on whom he depends for support," it cautioned.