Asia still torn by conflict, measured optimism in Korea<\/p>\n
LONDON (AFP): Asia is still wracked by conflict, from a
\ndangerous deterioration of security in Indonesia to the India-
\nPakistan nuclear stand-off, but the easing of tension on the
\nKorean peninsula is cause for measured optimism, the IISS think
\ntank said on Thursday.<\/p>\n
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies
\n(IISS) said military spending in the region rose substantially
\nthis year and would continue to do so as long as fundamental
\ninsecurities persisted.<\/p>\n
Military spending in East Asia and Australasia rose six
\npercent to US$135 billion. China alone spent $40 billion while
\nIndia hiked its defense budget by 20 percent to nearly $14
\nbillion.<\/p>\n
The IISS painted a gloomy picture of South Asia in its annual
\nreport, while also sounding the alarm about Indonesia, Islamic
\nseparatism in the Philippines and the resurfacing of ethnic
\nrivalries in the Pacific.<\/p>\n
\"Relations between India and Pakistan remain tense and
\nterrorism continues in Kashmir. The interminable war in Sri Lanka
\ncontinues to drain the country's human and material capital,\"
\nsaid the report.<\/p>\n
It said there was no end in sight to the conflict in
\nAfghanistan, and pointed to the steadily growing violence in the
\nCentral Asian republics involving government forces, Islamic
\nfighters and drug gangs.<\/p>\n
Despite persistent fears of a South Asian arms race, IISS
\njudged India and Pakistan's nuclear capabilities to be \"little
\nchanged\" during the year.<\/p>\n
India is still far from acquiring the capabilities laid out in
\nits ambitious 1999 nuclear doctrine, with only \"modest steps\"
\nbeing taken towards improving nuclear delivery systems.<\/p>\n
Pakistan's missile arsenal, meanwhile, has continued to
\nstrengthen, with the 2,400-kilometer Shaheen-2 ready for flight
\ntests and a series of other missiles at different stages of
\ndevelopment.<\/p>\n
The report said the security situation in Indonesia continued
\nto deteriorate, pointing to an upsurge of sectarian violence as
\nwell as separatism in the northern region of Aceh and in West
\nPapua.<\/p>\n
\"The separatist movements appeared to have been at least been
\ntemporarily contained, however there is sporadic violence that
\ncould worsen if no substantive political progress is made,\" said
\nthe IISS.<\/p>\n
But there were few signs the Christian-Muslim violence in the
\nMaluku islands, which has claimed thousands of lives this year,
\nwould abate.<\/p>\n
\"The security forces seem unable to restore calm and the
\noutlook is bleak,\" said the report.<\/p>\n
The IISS also expressed concern at the upswing in Islamic
\nseparatist violence in the Philippines after four years of
\nrelative calm, as well as the eruption of long-standing ethnic
\nrivalries in the Pacific nations of Fiji and the Solomon Islands.<\/p>\n
The report, however, painted a rosier picture in North Asia.
\nWhile China continued to build up its military capability to
\nalter the strategic balance with Taiwan, it was unlikely to
\nfollow through on its repeated threats to invade the island as it
\nwas preoccupied with reforming its economy and suppressing
\ndissent at home, the report said.<\/p>\n
\"Military confrontation over Taiwan seems a remote
\npossibility, provided the key actors remain preoccupied by their
\nother priorities,\" the report added.<\/p>\n
The IISS said the first ever inter-Korean summit in June had
\ncaused significant reverberations although it pointed out there
\nwas no military dialogue yet between Cold War enemies North and
\nSouth Korea.<\/p>\n
As North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il opens up his country to the
\nworld he could gradually scale down the huge defense spending and
\ndevote more funds to economic development, said the report.<\/p>\n
\"Such a shift, however, could strain relations between himself
\nand the military on whom he depends for support,\" it cautioned.<\/p>",
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