Asia dangers may still be lurking for U.S.

Asia dangers may still be lurking for U.S.

Jane Macartney, Reuters, Singapore

American agents tracking the traces of terror are trudging through Asia from Afghanistan to Indonesia to hunt down the militants and their financiers.

But as the United States girds for war with Iraq, questions are arising over whether deploying those resources so far away is worthwhile, effective, necessary and even possible.

For Washington, "what if" questions abound in a region with some of the world's hottest potential flashpoints dotted among tropical havens of peace and firm authoritarian rule.

What if a new massacre by suicidal militants brought India and Pakistan back to the brink of nuclear war? What if tiny Taiwan irritated mighty China with yet more stabs at independence?

What if the world's largest Muslim nation, Indonesia, erupted in riot and revolution, or North Korea returned to isolated unpredictability?

And what of the still-unfinished war in Afghanistan against the remnants of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, suspected of carrying out the deadly Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States?

"There are different reasons why they are unlikely to be gearing up for things to hot up in any of these," said Robert Karniol, Asia-Pacific editor for Jane's Defense Weekly.

"The United States in theory has the capability to fight two wars at once," he said.

"But Afghanistan isn't a war, not an active war. This is a policing action, it's not a military conflict any more."

Washington's diplomats are criss-crossing Asia almost daily to ensure other regional troublespots do not become a distraction if it takes on Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

Special envoy James Kelly was halfway through a three-day visit to Pyongyang on Friday -- the most senior U.S. official to visit North Korea since President George W. Bush in January lumped the country with Iraq and Iran as an "axis of evil".

Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, has said little about the trip and it was not known if he would meet leader Kim Jong-il, who has launched tentative economic reforms and pushed ajar the North's long-closed diplomatic door.

Analysts say Washington has made clear that Kelly's trip is to cement progress by Seoul and Tokyo on questions it would not want to have to tackle while pursuing an offensive in Iraq.

The other prime area of war risk in the region is for many the most frightening -- a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan.

Both are now transfixed by regional or general elections whose success or failure will help to determine whether the nervous neighbors can pull back from the brink of the war they almost fought in June.

India's energies are focused on showing the world it can manage polls in disputed Muslim-majority Kashmir. Pakistan's military ruler, President Pervez Musharraf, will next week oversee a return to civilian government.

"The U.S. is already of the view that the Indo-Pakistan situation is under control and would not be a major distraction," said Pakistani military analyst Talat Masood, a retired general.

"They will keep up constant vigilance and pressure," he said.

Masood did not rule out a gesture by India toward starting talks with Pakistan after the installation of a civilian government brings to an end three years of military rule.

"This could be a face-saving way for them to send their men back to barracks," he said.

Diplomats and analysts say the risk of a flare-up between China and Taiwan is the least of Washington's regional headaches.

In China, with the Communist Party busy managing the succession to a new generation of leaders, domestic issues far outweigh international problems. As for Taiwan, few doubt that Washington would muzzle the island's leaders if they pushed Beijing too far with their pro-independence taunts.

"They will pay attention to this kind of stuff, but the likelihood of war on another front is pretty dim," said Karniol.

In the event of war against Iraq, Washington's main concern would be anti-U.S. demonstrations, possibly even violent uprisings, in predominantly Muslim nations such as Indonesia whose president, Megawati Soekarnoputri, is already governing from shaky ground.

"Everything depends on how the war is initiated, how it develops and what kinds of political impacts it has," said Magnus Ranstorp from the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrews University in Scotland.

"Of course it will increase the feeling of anti-Americanism in the region and it may lead to more spontaneous attacks. People will harbor more sympathy for al-Qaeda."

The tentacles of al-Qaeda and its disciples stretch far in Asia.

A Muslim radical from Singapore, identified only as Al- Bukhari, helped to finance a plot hatched in 1999 to assassinate Indonesia's Megawati, Singapore's Straits Times said on Friday, quoting international terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna, also of St. Andrews.

The level of anger in Asia would depend on whether the United States went it alone, the length of a conflict, civilian casualties and if Israel got involved, Ranstorp said.

"It is like playing multi-dimensional chess. You know what the chessboard looks like, but you don't know exactly how a move on one plane will affect another plane.

"Publicly it may be more difficult for certain countries to justify a closer relationship with the United States, it will become a more hostile environment."