Asia dangers may still be lurking for U.S.

Asia dangers may still be lurking for U.S.

Jane Macartney, Reuters, Singapore

American agents tracking the traces of terror are trudging
through Asia from Afghanistan to Indonesia to hunt down the
militants and their financiers.

But as the United States girds for war with Iraq, questions
are arising over whether deploying those resources so far away is
worthwhile, effective, necessary and even possible.

For Washington, "what if" questions abound in a region with
some of the world's hottest potential flashpoints dotted among
tropical havens of peace and firm authoritarian rule.

What if a new massacre by suicidal militants brought India and
Pakistan back to the brink of nuclear war? What if tiny Taiwan
irritated mighty China with yet more stabs at independence?

What if the world's largest Muslim nation, Indonesia, erupted
in riot and revolution, or North Korea returned to isolated
unpredictability?

And what of the still-unfinished war in Afghanistan against
the remnants of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, suspected of
carrying out the deadly Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United
States?

"There are different reasons why they are unlikely to be
gearing up for things to hot up in any of these," said Robert
Karniol, Asia-Pacific editor for Jane's Defense Weekly.

"The United States in theory has the capability to fight two
wars at once," he said.

"But Afghanistan isn't a war, not an active war. This is a
policing action, it's not a military conflict any more."

Washington's diplomats are criss-crossing Asia almost daily to
ensure other regional troublespots do not become a distraction if
it takes on Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

Special envoy James Kelly was halfway through a three-day
visit to Pyongyang on Friday -- the most senior U.S. official to
visit North Korea since President George W. Bush in January
lumped the country with Iraq and Iran as an "axis of evil".

Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific
affairs, has said little about the trip and it was not known if
he would meet leader Kim Jong-il, who has launched tentative
economic reforms and pushed ajar the North's long-closed
diplomatic door.

Analysts say Washington has made clear that Kelly's trip is to
cement progress by Seoul and Tokyo on questions it would not want
to have to tackle while pursuing an offensive in Iraq.

The other prime area of war risk in the region is for many the
most frightening -- a nuclear exchange between India and
Pakistan.

Both are now transfixed by regional or general elections whose
success or failure will help to determine whether the nervous
neighbors can pull back from the brink of the war they almost
fought in June.

India's energies are focused on showing the world it can
manage polls in disputed Muslim-majority Kashmir. Pakistan's
military ruler, President Pervez Musharraf, will next week
oversee a return to civilian government.

"The U.S. is already of the view that the Indo-Pakistan
situation is under control and would not be a major distraction,"
said Pakistani military analyst Talat Masood, a retired general.

"They will keep up constant vigilance and pressure," he said.

Masood did not rule out a gesture by India toward starting
talks with Pakistan after the installation of a civilian
government brings to an end three years of military rule.

"This could be a face-saving way for them to send their men
back to barracks," he said.

Diplomats and analysts say the risk of a flare-up between
China and Taiwan is the least of Washington's regional headaches.

In China, with the Communist Party busy managing the
succession to a new generation of leaders, domestic issues far
outweigh international problems. As for Taiwan, few doubt that
Washington would muzzle the island's leaders if they pushed
Beijing too far with their pro-independence taunts.

"They will pay attention to this kind of stuff, but the
likelihood of war on another front is pretty dim," said Karniol.

In the event of war against Iraq, Washington's main concern
would be anti-U.S. demonstrations, possibly even violent
uprisings, in predominantly Muslim nations such as Indonesia
whose president, Megawati Soekarnoputri, is already governing
from shaky ground.

"Everything depends on how the war is initiated, how it
develops and what kinds of political impacts it has," said Magnus
Ranstorp from the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political
Violence at St. Andrews University in Scotland.

"Of course it will increase the feeling of anti-Americanism in
the region and it may lead to more spontaneous attacks. People
will harbor more sympathy for al-Qaeda."

The tentacles of al-Qaeda and its disciples stretch far in
Asia.

A Muslim radical from Singapore, identified only as Al-
Bukhari, helped to finance a plot hatched in 1999 to assassinate
Indonesia's Megawati, Singapore's Straits Times said on Friday,
quoting international terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna, also of
St. Andrews.

The level of anger in Asia would depend on whether the United
States went it alone, the length of a conflict, civilian
casualties and if Israel got involved, Ranstorp said.

"It is like playing multi-dimensional chess. You know what the
chessboard looks like, but you don't know exactly how a move on
one plane will affect another plane.

"Publicly it may be more difficult for certain countries to
justify a closer relationship with the United States, it will
become a more hostile environment."