Asia dangers may still be lurking for U.S.<\/p>\n
Jane Macartney, Reuters, Singapore<\/p>\n
American agents tracking the traces of terror are trudging
\nthrough Asia from Afghanistan to Indonesia to hunt down the
\nmilitants and their financiers.<\/p>\n
But as the United States girds for war with Iraq, questions
\nare arising over whether deploying those resources so far away is
\nworthwhile, effective, necessary and even possible.<\/p>\n
For Washington, \"what if\" questions abound in a region with
\nsome of the world's hottest potential flashpoints dotted among
\ntropical havens of peace and firm authoritarian rule.<\/p>\n
What if a new massacre by suicidal militants brought India and
\nPakistan back to the brink of nuclear war? What if tiny Taiwan
\nirritated mighty China with yet more stabs at independence?<\/p>\n
What if the world's largest Muslim nation, Indonesia, erupted
\nin riot and revolution, or North Korea returned to isolated
\nunpredictability?<\/p>\n
And what of the still-unfinished war in Afghanistan against
\nthe remnants of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, suspected of
\ncarrying out the deadly Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United
\nStates?<\/p>\n
\"There are different reasons why they are unlikely to be
\ngearing up for things to hot up in any of these,\" said Robert
\nKarniol, Asia-Pacific editor for Jane's Defense Weekly.<\/p>\n
\"The United States in theory has the capability to fight two
\nwars at once,\" he said.<\/p>\n
\"But Afghanistan isn't a war, not an active war. This is a
\npolicing action, it's not a military conflict any more.\"<\/p>\n
Washington's diplomats are criss-crossing Asia almost daily to
\nensure other regional troublespots do not become a distraction if
\nit takes on Saddam Hussein in Iraq.<\/p>\n
Special envoy James Kelly was halfway through a three-day
\nvisit to Pyongyang on Friday -- the most senior U.S. official to
\nvisit North Korea since President George W. Bush in January
\nlumped the country with Iraq and Iran as an \"axis of evil\".<\/p>\n
Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific
\naffairs, has said little about the trip and it was not known if
\nhe would meet leader Kim Jong-il, who has launched tentative
\neconomic reforms and pushed ajar the North's long-closed
\ndiplomatic door.<\/p>\n
Analysts say Washington has made clear that Kelly's trip is to
\ncement progress by Seoul and Tokyo on questions it would not want
\nto have to tackle while pursuing an offensive in Iraq.<\/p>\n
The other prime area of war risk in the region is for many the
\nmost frightening -- a nuclear exchange between India and
\nPakistan.<\/p>\n
Both are now transfixed by regional or general elections whose
\nsuccess or failure will help to determine whether the nervous
\nneighbors can pull back from the brink of the war they almost
\nfought in June.<\/p>\n
India's energies are focused on showing the world it can
\nmanage polls in disputed Muslim-majority Kashmir. Pakistan's
\nmilitary ruler, President Pervez Musharraf, will next week
\noversee a return to civilian government.<\/p>\n
\"The U.S. is already of the view that the Indo-Pakistan
\nsituation is under control and would not be a major distraction,\"
\nsaid Pakistani military analyst Talat Masood, a retired general.<\/p>\n
\"They will keep up constant vigilance and pressure,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Masood did not rule out a gesture by India toward starting
\ntalks with Pakistan after the installation of a civilian
\ngovernment brings to an end three years of military rule.<\/p>\n
\"This could be a face-saving way for them to send their men
\nback to barracks,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Diplomats and analysts say the risk of a flare-up between
\nChina and Taiwan is the least of Washington's regional headaches.<\/p>\n
In China, with the Communist Party busy managing the
\nsuccession to a new generation of leaders, domestic issues far
\noutweigh international problems. As for Taiwan, few doubt that
\nWashington would muzzle the island's leaders if they pushed
\nBeijing too far with their pro-independence taunts.<\/p>\n
\"They will pay attention to this kind of stuff, but the
\nlikelihood of war on another front is pretty dim,\" said Karniol.<\/p>\n
In the event of war against Iraq, Washington's main concern
\nwould be anti-U.S. demonstrations, possibly even violent
\nuprisings, in predominantly Muslim nations such as Indonesia
\nwhose president, Megawati Soekarnoputri, is already governing
\nfrom shaky ground.<\/p>\n
\"Everything depends on how the war is initiated, how it
\ndevelops and what kinds of political impacts it has,\" said Magnus
\nRanstorp from the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political
\nViolence at St. Andrews University in Scotland.<\/p>\n
\"Of course it will increase the feeling of anti-Americanism in
\nthe region and it may lead to more spontaneous attacks. People
\nwill harbor more sympathy for al-Qaeda.\"<\/p>\n
The tentacles of al-Qaeda and its disciples stretch far in
\nAsia.<\/p>\n
A Muslim radical from Singapore, identified only as Al-
\nBukhari, helped to finance a plot hatched in 1999 to assassinate
\nIndonesia's Megawati, Singapore's Straits Times said on Friday,
\nquoting international terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna, also of
\nSt. Andrews.<\/p>\n
The level of anger in Asia would depend on whether the United
\nStates went it alone, the length of a conflict, civilian
\ncasualties and if Israel got involved, Ranstorp said.<\/p>\n
\"It is like playing multi-dimensional chess. You know what the
\nchessboard looks like, but you don't know exactly how a move on
\none plane will affect another plane.<\/p>\n
\"Publicly it may be more difficult for certain countries to
\njustify a closer relationship with the United States, it will
\nbecome a more hostile environment.\"<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/asia-dangers-may-still-be-lurking-for-us-1447893297",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
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