ASEAN wrestles with Cambodia

ASEAN wrestles with Cambodia

By Olaf Jahn

HONG KONG (DPA): The deposed First Prime Minister of Cambodia, Prince Norodom Ranariddh, has not won the backing he was hoping for during his tour of the capitals of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries.

On the contrary: ASEAN member nations have decided no longer to refer to him as "First Prime Minister". In Manila, President Fidel Ramos urged Ranariddh to come to terms with the man who mounted the coup against him, Hun Sen.

Six weeks after the coup, ASEAN is clearly still trying to decide on a suitable stance to take towards the crisis. ASEAN's need to show the world that it has the ability to take action comes at a time when it is in a state of upheaval which it has yet to sort out.

The modern ASEAN is growing in importance and it cannot keep silent about a violent overthrow in the region by simply saying that it is none of its business.

This is why Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has demanded "constructive intervention" in cases of crisis. It remains unclear what the yardstick for intervention would be. In contrast to NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which sees itself as a community of democratic values, ASEAN is a group which places economic aims and a general desire for stability at the top of its priorities.

On top of that is the ever-more-strongly perceived need to counter the growing influence of China in the region. The Myanmar government in Yangon and the Chinese leadership in Beijing have come closer to one another over the past few years.

China now uses Myanmar naval bases. This seems to be a step towards extending its sphere of influence in a southernly direction. It was in an effort to prevent such an expansion that ASEAN offered the brutally authoritarian regime in Myanmar a political home in the form of ASEAN membership.

For the same reasons, ASEAN members are refusing to condemn Hun Sen, Cambodia's Second Prime Minister, as a putschist: Beijing has already said it is prepared to offer him economic aid and enter other forms of cooperation with him.

The desire to bring Cambodia into ASEAN on tactical grounds is strong. And it is further strengthened by the fact that several ASEAN leaders have for decades dreamt of a complete "community of 10".

But this again throws to the surface the problem that ASEAN has become a creation without orientation to a set of values. With Laos and Vietnam coming in a year ago, ASEAN brought in two countries whose socialist systems differ vastly from the other member nations.

If -- as now can be expected -- a Hun Sen-dominated Cambodia is admitted to the body at the jubilee celebration in December, ASEAN will have a solidly socialist, China-friendly bloc within its ranks.

Because Myanmar is economically dependent on China, the influence of Beijing inside ASEAN -- and thus in the region -- threatens to become stronger than the founding fathers would have wanted.

Southeast Asia sees itself in a dilemma. It cannot put off Hun Sen because if it did it would drive him into China's arms. At the same time it has to push for a return of more-or-less democratic conditions in Cambodia which would give Ranarriddh and his FUNCINPEC party a fair chance.

A more-or-less working democracy with a strong dose of royalist input would strengthen the position of the non-socialist states within ASEAN and keep the feared China factor at bay.

In this situation, ASEAN is behaving purely pragmatically. Hun Sen is recognized as the de facto possessor of power because of the existing situation in Cambodia.

At the same time, ASEAN is also pushing for fair elections to be held within the coming year under international surveillance. This process could only be destroyed if Ranariddh were demonstratively to be recognized as the head of government. That is why ASEAN is now avoiding calling him "First Prime Minister".

The diplomatic struggle will now take place over the next few months to persuade Hun Sen to tolerate a real opposition and to set down binding conditions for a parliamentary election.

An indication of how successful these efforts might has already been provided in the form of ASEAN's efforts when it successfully accompanied the peace process in Cambodia.

But regardless of how these efforts turn out, the Cambodian crisis has made one thing clear: until such time as ASEAN develops a core of basic common political beliefs, its international and regional weight will remain limited.