ASEAN must act on Myanmar

ASEAN must act on Myanmar

The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Massive changes made to Myanmar's ruling hierarchy recently
have intrigued observers. Taken together with the junta's
continuing contacts with the opposition forces of Aung San Suu
Kyi, the impression is growing that a bit more loosening up of
the generals' grip on the country could be the outcome.

If events of the next few months bear this out, Myanmar's
allies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
should step up pressure through diplomacy and choice of economic
support, such as aid and investments, to move the process along.

Five ministers were retired and two powerful figures
dismissed. There is speculation that the sacking of the two (the
junta's fourth-ranking member Win Myint and Deputy Premier Tin
Hla, both with duties in economic management) is intended to
signal to the outside world that economic and business
supervision would be tightened to make Myanmar more acceptable to
investors.

Others think the moves are a clean-out of hardliners unhappy
about the democratizing overtures to the opposition National
League for Democracy (NLD). But it is prudent not to be overly
enthusiastic about the shake-up in the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC), as the military administration is
called.

It is not for nothing that Myanmar has been likened to the
eternal enigma, of which everything and nothing is gleaned. But
it encourages those who argue for stability as a pre-condition
for political reform to reach fruition that the top three leaders
are firmly in place. Than Shwe is still top of the heap as Prime
Minister and SPDC chairman; Maung Aye remains vice-chairman and
army chief; and the energetic intelligence chief Khin Nyunt is
still No. 3.

Of primary concern to Myanmar's neighbors impatient for it to
revert to being a 'normal' nation is the progress of talks with
Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD. It is proper that restoration of elective
rule be the test by which the generals' sincerity is judged.

This is so not only for ASEAN but also the troika (the United
States, Japan and the European Union) which have an interest in
Myanmar's political future. A statement from the SPDC said the
shake-up need not mean a shift in policy towards contacts with
Suu Kyi.

Whether this implies a more conducive climate is developing
will be made clearer when the United Nations' special envoy for
Myanmar, Razali Ismail, travels to Yangon next week. This will be
his fifth visit since the junta agreed to talks with Suu Kyi in
October last year. Gen. Than Shwe would not meet Razali on his
last visit in August. If a meeting does take place now, it would
encourage hopes that the path to democratization is being
smoothened.

Progress has been slow. But this being Myanmar, with its
history of 11 years of subjugation of the popular will and the
indignities inflicted on Suu Kyi, any progress is to be
celebrated. Since Razali exercised his mandate, the junta has
freed close to 200 NLD members from detention. NLD offices
ordered closed down have been permitted to reopen progressively:
25 of the 40 branch offices in Yangon are back in business.

But Suu Kyi herself remains in a state of limbo. Pressure must
be exerted by Razali and friendly countries for more concessions
to be made. One report attributed to Razali after his August
visit said he thought it would take another two to four years for
civilian rule to be restored.

It is best not to tempt the fates (or the finicky generals) by
placing any sort of a time-frame to it. But if the SPDC purge
suggests anything, it is that this is the time to press home the
advantage.