ASEAN must act on Myanmar

ASEAN must act on Myanmar

The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Massive changes made to Myanmar's ruling hierarchy recently have intrigued observers. Taken together with the junta's continuing contacts with the opposition forces of Aung San Suu Kyi, the impression is growing that a bit more loosening up of the generals' grip on the country could be the outcome.

If events of the next few months bear this out, Myanmar's allies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should step up pressure through diplomacy and choice of economic support, such as aid and investments, to move the process along.

Five ministers were retired and two powerful figures dismissed. There is speculation that the sacking of the two (the junta's fourth-ranking member Win Myint and Deputy Premier Tin Hla, both with duties in economic management) is intended to signal to the outside world that economic and business supervision would be tightened to make Myanmar more acceptable to investors.

Others think the moves are a clean-out of hardliners unhappy about the democratizing overtures to the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD). But it is prudent not to be overly enthusiastic about the shake-up in the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the military administration is called.

It is not for nothing that Myanmar has been likened to the eternal enigma, of which everything and nothing is gleaned. But it encourages those who argue for stability as a pre-condition for political reform to reach fruition that the top three leaders are firmly in place. Than Shwe is still top of the heap as Prime Minister and SPDC chairman; Maung Aye remains vice-chairman and army chief; and the energetic intelligence chief Khin Nyunt is still No. 3.

Of primary concern to Myanmar's neighbors impatient for it to revert to being a 'normal' nation is the progress of talks with Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD. It is proper that restoration of elective rule be the test by which the generals' sincerity is judged.

This is so not only for ASEAN but also the troika (the United States, Japan and the European Union) which have an interest in Myanmar's political future. A statement from the SPDC said the shake-up need not mean a shift in policy towards contacts with Suu Kyi.

Whether this implies a more conducive climate is developing will be made clearer when the United Nations' special envoy for Myanmar, Razali Ismail, travels to Yangon next week. This will be his fifth visit since the junta agreed to talks with Suu Kyi in October last year. Gen. Than Shwe would not meet Razali on his last visit in August. If a meeting does take place now, it would encourage hopes that the path to democratization is being smoothened.

Progress has been slow. But this being Myanmar, with its history of 11 years of subjugation of the popular will and the indignities inflicted on Suu Kyi, any progress is to be celebrated. Since Razali exercised his mandate, the junta has freed close to 200 NLD members from detention. NLD offices ordered closed down have been permitted to reopen progressively: 25 of the 40 branch offices in Yangon are back in business.

But Suu Kyi herself remains in a state of limbo. Pressure must be exerted by Razali and friendly countries for more concessions to be made. One report attributed to Razali after his August visit said he thought it would take another two to four years for civilian rule to be restored.

It is best not to tempt the fates (or the finicky generals) by placing any sort of a time-frame to it. But if the SPDC purge suggests anything, it is that this is the time to press home the advantage.