ASEAN must act on Myanmar<\/p>\n
The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore<\/p>\n
Massive changes made to Myanmar's ruling hierarchy recently
\nhave intrigued observers. Taken together with the junta's
\ncontinuing contacts with the opposition forces of Aung San Suu
\nKyi, the impression is growing that a bit more loosening up of
\nthe generals' grip on the country could be the outcome.<\/p>\n
If events of the next few months bear this out, Myanmar's
\nallies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
\nshould step up pressure through diplomacy and choice of economic
\nsupport, such as aid and investments, to move the process along.<\/p>\n
Five ministers were retired and two powerful figures
\ndismissed. There is speculation that the sacking of the two (the
\njunta's fourth-ranking member Win Myint and Deputy Premier Tin
\nHla, both with duties in economic management) is intended to
\nsignal to the outside world that economic and business
\nsupervision would be tightened to make Myanmar more acceptable to
\ninvestors.<\/p>\n
Others think the moves are a clean-out of hardliners unhappy
\nabout the democratizing overtures to the opposition National
\nLeague for Democracy (NLD). But it is prudent not to be overly
\nenthusiastic about the shake-up in the State Peace and
\nDevelopment Council (SPDC), as the military administration is
\ncalled.<\/p>\n
It is not for nothing that Myanmar has been likened to the
\neternal enigma, of which everything and nothing is gleaned. But
\nit encourages those who argue for stability as a pre-condition
\nfor political reform to reach fruition that the top three leaders
\nare firmly in place. Than Shwe is still top of the heap as Prime
\nMinister and SPDC chairman; Maung Aye remains vice-chairman and
\narmy chief; and the energetic intelligence chief Khin Nyunt is
\nstill No. 3.<\/p>\n
Of primary concern to Myanmar's neighbors impatient for it to
\nrevert to being a 'normal' nation is the progress of talks with
\nMs Suu Kyi and the NLD. It is proper that restoration of elective
\nrule be the test by which the generals' sincerity is judged.<\/p>\n
This is so not only for ASEAN but also the troika (the United
\nStates, Japan and the European Union) which have an interest in
\nMyanmar's political future. A statement from the SPDC said the
\nshake-up need not mean a shift in policy towards contacts with
\nSuu Kyi.<\/p>\n
Whether this implies a more conducive climate is developing
\nwill be made clearer when the United Nations' special envoy for
\nMyanmar, Razali Ismail, travels to Yangon next week. This will be
\nhis fifth visit since the junta agreed to talks with Suu Kyi in
\nOctober last year. Gen. Than Shwe would not meet Razali on his
\nlast visit in August. If a meeting does take place now, it would
\nencourage hopes that the path to democratization is being
\nsmoothened.<\/p>\n
Progress has been slow. But this being Myanmar, with its
\nhistory of 11 years of subjugation of the popular will and the
\nindignities inflicted on Suu Kyi, any progress is to be
\ncelebrated. Since Razali exercised his mandate, the junta has
\nfreed close to 200 NLD members from detention. NLD offices
\nordered closed down have been permitted to reopen progressively:
\n25 of the 40 branch offices in Yangon are back in business.<\/p>\n
But Suu Kyi herself remains in a state of limbo. Pressure must
\nbe exerted by Razali and friendly countries for more concessions
\nto be made. One report attributed to Razali after his August
\nvisit said he thought it would take another two to four years for
\ncivilian rule to be restored.<\/p>\n
It is best not to tempt the fates (or the finicky generals) by
\nplacing any sort of a time-frame to it. But if the SPDC purge
\nsuggests anything, it is that this is the time to press home the
\nadvantage.<\/p>",
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