ASEAN-China conflict possible over oil: Experts

JAKARTA (JP): International relations experts said yesterday that war between China and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over the oil-rich South China Sea is probable given the future needs of both sides for energy sources.

Vice Governor of the National Resilience Institute Juwono Sudarsono said in a seminar that such an outcome is likely should China not have any other alternative energy sources.

"My pessimistic projection is that barring the possibility that China can gain access to resources other than the South China Sea area, then ASEAN countries will have to face the possibility of imminent military confrontation with China," Juwono said.

ASEAN comprises Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Though yet to be substantiated, the South China Sea remains a huge potential source of natural resources. Sovereignty of the area is currently disputed by Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and the Philippines. They particularly have overlapping claims on the sprawling Spratly islands.

Juwono, who is one of Indonesia's most respected international affairs experts, explained that both China and the ASEAN member states will need energy resources to maintain their high level of economic growth.

"Each of the ASEAN countries' needs for energy resources as they pertain to the South China Sea will come into conflict with the interests of China as the largest economy in the region. And that will effect competition for future resources," he said during a seminar on ASEAN's Strategies and Actions.

He said that at present China chooses not to upset its southeast Asian neighbors because it wants to maintain a climate which can attract commerce and investment.

However all that could easily change, he noted.

Juwono points to what he sees as a running battle between the Chinese foreign ministry and the military establishment. He said they seem to have opposite approaches to the matter and that Beijing could easily revoke its pledge to pursue a peaceful settlement to the overlapping claims.

"Despite the Chinese foreign ministry's adherence to settle disputes through the Law of the Sea, the military establishment is not as enthusiastic about accommodation," he said.

"I think they're keeping their options quite open about their stake or claim over sovereignty in the South China Sea," Juwono added.

Another eminent foreign affairs expert admitted that while she was not as pessimistic as Juwono, neither was she overly optimistic about the situation.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences told The Jakarta Post that it is important to try to bring Beijing into closer engagement, nevertheless at the same time ASEAN should not leave itself vulnerable.

"If we try to engage it (China) more, then hopefully it will change its behavior. But on the other hand I think it would be foolish for us to be completely naive," Dewi said.

She said ASEAN had adopted a policy of "institutionalized liberalization" in which engagement with the aim of confidence- building to avert conflict was pursued through such avenues as the ASEAN Regional Forum.

ASEAN is also engaging China through its annual dialog, which was last held in Bukittinggi, West Sumatra, in June.

"We hope that we can preach this kind of institutionalization to North East Asian countries like China. But at the same time nobody's pulled it off yet. That's that's why all the ASEAN countries are arming themselves to the teeth," Dewi, who had just returned from a political security seminar in Beijing, said.

When asked what kind of stance the ASEAN countries should adopt, Dewi said that individually the member states must not appear subservient to Beijing.

"China respects strength. If they see you as being weak they'll eat you alive," she said adding that one of the main weaknesses of ASEAN is that the members do not have a common strategic outlook.

In Dewi's opinion this diversity in outlook and a reluctance to face Beijing head-on could be ASEAN's undoing.

"The only two countries that are willing to stand up to Beijing are Indonesia and Vietnam," she remarked. (mds)