ASEAN-China conflict possible over oil: Experts

ASEAN-China conflict possible over oil: Experts

JAKARTA (JP): International relations experts said yesterday
that war between China and members of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over the oil-rich South China Sea
is probable given the future needs of both sides for energy
sources.

Vice Governor of the National Resilience Institute Juwono
Sudarsono said in a seminar that such an outcome is likely should
China not have any other alternative energy sources.

"My pessimistic projection is that barring the possibility
that China can gain access to resources other than the South
China Sea area, then ASEAN countries will have to face the
possibility of imminent military confrontation with China,"
Juwono said.

ASEAN comprises Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Though yet to be substantiated, the South China Sea remains a
huge potential source of natural resources. Sovereignty of the
area is currently disputed by Brunei, China, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Taiwan and the Philippines. They particularly have
overlapping claims on the sprawling Spratly islands.

Juwono, who is one of Indonesia's most respected international
affairs experts, explained that both China and the ASEAN member
states will need energy resources to maintain their high level of
economic growth.

"Each of the ASEAN countries' needs for energy resources as
they pertain to the South China Sea will come into conflict with
the interests of China as the largest economy in the region. And
that will effect competition for future resources," he said
during a seminar on ASEAN's Strategies and Actions.

He said that at present China chooses not to upset its
southeast Asian neighbors because it wants to maintain a climate
which can attract commerce and investment.

However all that could easily change, he noted.

Juwono points to what he sees as a running battle between the
Chinese foreign ministry and the military establishment. He said
they seem to have opposite approaches to the matter and that
Beijing could easily revoke its pledge to pursue a peaceful
settlement to the overlapping claims.

"Despite the Chinese foreign ministry's adherence to settle
disputes through the Law of the Sea, the military establishment
is not as enthusiastic about accommodation," he said.

"I think they're keeping their options quite open about their
stake or claim over sovereignty in the South China Sea," Juwono
added.

Another eminent foreign affairs expert admitted that while she
was not as pessimistic as Juwono, neither was she overly
optimistic about the situation.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences
told The Jakarta Post that it is important to try to bring
Beijing into closer engagement, nevertheless at the same time
ASEAN should not leave itself vulnerable.

"If we try to engage it (China) more, then hopefully it will
change its behavior. But on the other hand I think it would be
foolish for us to be completely naive," Dewi said.

She said ASEAN had adopted a policy of "institutionalized
liberalization" in which engagement with the aim of confidence-
building to avert conflict was pursued through such avenues as
the ASEAN Regional Forum.

ASEAN is also engaging China through its annual dialog, which
was last held in Bukittinggi, West Sumatra, in June.

"We hope that we can preach this kind of institutionalization
to North East Asian countries like China. But at the same time
nobody's pulled it off yet. That's that's why all the ASEAN
countries are arming themselves to the teeth," Dewi, who had just
returned from a political security seminar in Beijing, said.

When asked what kind of stance the ASEAN countries should
adopt, Dewi said that individually the member states must not
appear subservient to Beijing.

"China respects strength. If they see you as being weak
they'll eat you alive," she said adding that one of the main
weaknesses of ASEAN is that the members do not have a common
strategic outlook.

In Dewi's opinion this diversity in outlook and a reluctance
to face Beijing head-on could be ASEAN's undoing.

"The only two countries that are willing to stand up to
Beijing are Indonesia and Vietnam," she remarked. (mds)