ASEAN-China conflict possible over oil: Experts<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): International relations experts said yesterday
\nthat war between China and members of the Association of
\nSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over the oil-rich South China Sea
\nis probable given the future needs of both sides for energy
\nsources.<\/p>\n
Vice Governor of the National Resilience Institute Juwono
\nSudarsono said in a seminar that such an outcome is likely should
\nChina not have any other alternative energy sources.<\/p>\n
\"My pessimistic projection is that barring the possibility
\nthat China can gain access to resources other than the South
\nChina Sea area, then ASEAN countries will have to face the
\npossibility of imminent military confrontation with China,\"
\nJuwono said.<\/p>\n
ASEAN comprises Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
\nSingapore, Thailand and Vietnam.<\/p>\n
Though yet to be substantiated, the South China Sea remains a
\nhuge potential source of natural resources. Sovereignty of the
\narea is currently disputed by Brunei, China, Malaysia, the
\nPhilippines, Taiwan and the Philippines. They particularly have
\noverlapping claims on the sprawling Spratly islands.<\/p>\n
Juwono, who is one of Indonesia's most respected international
\naffairs experts, explained that both China and the ASEAN member
\nstates will need energy resources to maintain their high level of
\neconomic growth.<\/p>\n
\"Each of the ASEAN countries' needs for energy resources as
\nthey pertain to the South China Sea will come into conflict with
\nthe interests of China as the largest economy in the region. And
\nthat will effect competition for future resources,\" he said
\nduring a seminar on ASEAN's Strategies and Actions.<\/p>\n
He said that at present China chooses not to upset its
\nsoutheast Asian neighbors because it wants to maintain a climate
\nwhich can attract commerce and investment.<\/p>\n
However all that could easily change, he noted.<\/p>\n
Juwono points to what he sees as a running battle between the
\nChinese foreign ministry and the military establishment. He said
\nthey seem to have opposite approaches to the matter and that
\nBeijing could easily revoke its pledge to pursue a peaceful
\nsettlement to the overlapping claims.<\/p>\n
\"Despite the Chinese foreign ministry's adherence to settle
\ndisputes through the Law of the Sea, the military establishment
\nis not as enthusiastic about accommodation,\" he said.<\/p>\n
\"I think they're keeping their options quite open about their
\nstake or claim over sovereignty in the South China Sea,\" Juwono
\nadded.<\/p>\n
Another eminent foreign affairs expert admitted that while she
\nwas not as pessimistic as Juwono, neither was she overly
\noptimistic about the situation.<\/p>\n
Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences
\ntold The Jakarta Post that it is important to try to bring
\nBeijing into closer engagement, nevertheless at the same time
\nASEAN should not leave itself vulnerable.<\/p>\n
\"If we try to engage it (China) more, then hopefully it will
\nchange its behavior. But on the other hand I think it would be
\nfoolish for us to be completely naive,\" Dewi said.<\/p>\n
She said ASEAN had adopted a policy of \"institutionalized
\nliberalization\" in which engagement with the aim of confidence-
\nbuilding to avert conflict was pursued through such avenues as
\nthe ASEAN Regional Forum.<\/p>\n
ASEAN is also engaging China through its annual dialog, which
\nwas last held in Bukittinggi, West Sumatra, in June.<\/p>\n
\"We hope that we can preach this kind of institutionalization
\nto North East Asian countries like China. But at the same time
\nnobody's pulled it off yet. That's that's why all the ASEAN
\ncountries are arming themselves to the teeth,\" Dewi, who had just
\nreturned from a political security seminar in Beijing, said.<\/p>\n
When asked what kind of stance the ASEAN countries should
\nadopt, Dewi said that individually the member states must not
\nappear subservient to Beijing.<\/p>\n
\"China respects strength. If they see you as being weak
\nthey'll eat you alive,\" she said adding that one of the main
\nweaknesses of ASEAN is that the members do not have a common
\nstrategic outlook.<\/p>\n
In Dewi's opinion this diversity in outlook and a reluctance
\nto face Beijing head-on could be ASEAN's undoing.<\/p>\n
\"The only two countries that are willing to stand up to
\nBeijing are Indonesia and Vietnam,\" she remarked. (mds)<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/asean-china-conflict-possible-over-oil-experts-1447893297",
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