As the US–Israel–Iran war intensifies, direct flight ticket prices soar

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The global aviation industry is being shaken as major airports in the Middle East are closed due to the escalation of the US–Israel war against Iran, triggering a surge in direct flight ticket prices from Asia to Europe to levels that defy belief, while seat availability across major carriers disappears for several days.

The Gulf’s main transit hubs, including Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest airport with a capacity of around 1,000 flights per day, must halt operations for four consecutive days until Tuesday 3 March 2026. The closures have sharply cut seat capacity on popular routes, with carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways typically holding large market shares.

The disruption has directly boosted demand for emergency services at travel agents. Andrew Stark, Managing Director of Global Flight Centre Travel Group, said his company has recorded a 75% surge in customer calls since the crisis began, with the support team working around the clock to handle the disruptions.

“Australians are resilient and are already rebooking flights to the United Kingdom or Europe via alternative routes through China, Singapore, and other Asian hubs, as well as North America via hubs such as Houston,” Stark told Reuters.

Although some carriers operating nonstop Asia–Europe routes can still fly by avoiding the closed Middle East airspace, significant challenges remain. Planes must detour north via the Caucasus or south via Egypt, which automatically extends travel time and consumes more fuel amid a surge in global oil prices.

Subhas Menon, Chair of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, warned that the situation would weigh heavily on airline profitability if it continues. He noted that almost the entire Middle East is currently inaccessible to civil flights for safety reasons.

“Currently the entire Middle East is out of reach, which is a very costly constraint for several airlines. If Europe can only be served at high costs, airline profitability will be eroded. Ultimately, the price paid is a connectivity issue,” Menon stated.

The situation is expected to provide short-term gains for airlines with routes outside the conflict zone. Alton Aviation Consultancy notes that carriers such as Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, and Turkish Airlines could benefit from redirected passenger flows.

Prices on airline websites have risen sharply. Cathay Pacific, for example, has no remaining economy seats on the Hong Kong–London route until 11 March, with one-way fares priced at a minimum of US$2,705 (Rp45.66 million), well above the usual US$646 (Rp10.9 million).

A similar pattern has emerged for Qantas Airways on the Sydney–London route. The airline is not offering economy-class tickets on the normal route until 17 March; the last remaining seat is priced at US$2,220 (Rp37.47 million) one way. For earlier departures, travellers must take expensive detours via Los Angeles.

Thailand’s Transport Minister, Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn, also confirmed that Thai Airways’ Europe-bound services are now fully booked, as travellers favour direct flights over transiting through Middle East hubs that pose risk.

Thai Airways’ Bangkok–London tickets are reported as sold out until the end of the following weekend. Economy fares become available on 15 March at US$2,265 (Rp38.23 million), before easing to US$861 (Rp14.53 million) on 18 March.

The trend is also reported by Taiwan’s EVA Airways, which noted a surge in bookings from Asian and European travellers seeking alternative routes. Meanwhile, mainland China’s Air China shows a more extreme picture, with economy seats on the Beijing–London route already unavailable; for immediate departures the only option remaining is business class at an astonishing US$7,338 (Rp123.86 million) one way.

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