Arroyo may pay dear for hostage's life
Arroyo may pay dear for hostage's life
Stuart Grudgings, Reuters/Manila
By withdrawing from Iraq, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has
kissed goodbye any reputation she had as Asia's "iron lady", but
her strong bond with Washington seems unlikely to unravel as a
result.
Despite harsh criticism from the United States and talk of a
rift in relations, analysts said Washington needs the Philippine
government to keep up the pressure on Moro militants in the
country's lawless south, some of them linked to al-Qaeda.
Still, the price she is willing to pay to win the release of
truck driver Angelo de la Cruz may rise if, as some predict, the
pull-out undermines her credibility in fighting insurgents in
Manila's own back-yard or prompts Washington to cut vital aid.
Neither does the withdrawal inspire confidence that the U.S.-
trained economist will use her second term won in May 10
elections to take the tough, unpopular decisions needed to wean
the country off debt dependency and reform its feeble economy.
"I think everyone perceives her now as weak, vacillating and
prone to cave in, which might be a little unfair given the
circumstances," said Tom Green, executive director of the Pacific
Strategies and Assessments consultancy in Manila.
"Nevertheless, she's got a lot of ground to make up now."
The first of the Philippines' 51-member force began leaving
Iraq on Friday, making it clear after days of vague statements by
the government that Arroyo would pull them out as the militants
holding de la Cruz had demanded.
Arroyo, who styled herself as Asia's answer to Britain's "iron
lady" -- former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher -- after winning
the presidency in 2001, has remained virtually silent during the
crisis, leaving the talking to the foreign ministry.
The comparison with Thatcher already looked shaky after the
devoutly Catholic Arroyo flip-flopped on whether the Philippines
should have the death penalty and over her decision, later
reversed, not to run for a second term as president.
But her ratings seem unlikely to be dented by the end of a
deployment that was not particularly popular despite the
country's long-standing ties with the United States.
Securing de la Cruz's release should mean Arroyo will improve
her chances of a smooth start to a new six-year term, which
followed a bitter election overshadowed by opposition allegations
of cheating.
"A decision to keep the Philippine contingent in Iraq is
something the opposition would have loved," said Felipe Miranda,
head of the Pulse Asia polling firm, whose surveys have shown
most Filipinos opposed the Iraq deployment.
"It would have allowed them to mount a terrific campaign which
could even unseat her. So I think President Arroyo from a purely
political calculation point of view had no choice."
Many politicians, both friends and rivals, have rallied around
her in the face of criticism from Washington and others who have
said Manila is now in the diplomatic dog house.
Despite U.S. disappointment, analysts said it would not be in
Washington's interest to punish Manila by cutting its hefty
military aid to the country or reducing other forms of support.
"I expect (Washington) DC will get over this thing fairly
quickly because the fact is they still need a lot of cooperation
from the Philippines in the war on terrorism," said Green.
The United States is giving more than US$100 million in aid
over 5 years to the Philippine military, whose lack of training
and equipment has hampered attempts to find Muslim militants
suspected of being sheltered by the home-grown Moro Islamic
Liberation Front insurgency in southern Mindanao.
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