Arab Nations 'Battered', Will They Join US-Israel in Fighting Iran?
Middle East conflict reaches critical point threatening global stability
Escalation of the Middle East conflict has now reached a critical juncture threatening global stability. Despite being continuously struck by missiles and drones from Iran, Gulf nations have thus far maintained a defensive posture to avoid being drawn into the broader conflict that began after the United States and Israel attacked Tehran on 28 February.
Wealthy allied nations that have long been regarded as a “safe haven in a volatile region” are now experiencing direct consequences. Critical infrastructure, military bases and energy facilities have become targets of Iranian retaliatory strikes as the scope of warfare in the region expands.
Capital cities of Gulf nations have officially released public statements affirming they are not participating in any military operations against Iran. They have also asserted that their sovereign territories are not being used as bases for launching attacks.
Will Arab nations join the war?
Analysts assess that these oil-rich nations are collectively betting on “remaining outside the conflict”. They calculate that “the costs of direct involvement would be far higher and more damaging than exercising restraint”, although pressure to join the military coalition continues to mount.
Gulf security analyst Anna Jacobs explained that Iranian attacks present a significant and multifaceted challenge to regional nations. The threat extends beyond economic sectors to their social order and defence systems.
“This challenges their economies. This challenges their societies. This challenges their critical infrastructure. This challenges their defence systems,” Jacobs told AFP.
A recent incident fuelling concern was Iran’s drone attack on Bahrain, which damaged a desalination plant. This facility is vital infrastructure for the nation’s economy and the primary source of drinking water for residents.
Jacobs added that Gulf nations’ current stance towards Iranian attacks remains defensive. According to her, direct involvement in open warfare remains the worst-case scenario they are desperate to avoid.
“The posture of Gulf nations vis-à-vis Iranian attacks can currently be described as defensive. This remains a nightmare scenario for them,” Jacobs emphasised.
Diplomatic tensions emerge
Diplomatic tensions have begun to surface. Last week, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani levelled sharp criticism, accusing Iran of deliberately dragging its Gulf neighbours into a conflict unrelated to their interests.
“Iran is dragging its Gulf neighbours into a war that is not theirs,” Al Thani said.
Similarly, the United Arab Emirates has chosen to maintain distance from the conflict. The UAE government has emphasised its commitment to not participating in any offensive actions directed at Iranian territory to prevent wider escalation.
UAE Ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Jamal Al Musharakh, stated that his country has no desire to become trapped in the conflict. The UAE is working hard to avoid being drawn into mounting tensions.
“The UAE is not seeking to be drawn into conflict or escalation,” Al Musharakh said.
Restraint in Israel’s war
Security expert from King’s College London, Andreas Krieg, characterised the approach adopted by Gulf nations as a strategy of “restraint and endurance”. Despite hosting some US military bases, they are reluctant to become tools in Israel’s war efforts.
Although the US is involved, some analysts view this as a war of Israeli interests in the Middle East. Following the 28 February attack, in a closed-door meeting, Trump officials suggested the war occurred because Israel faced threats.
According to Krieg, Gulf nations calculate that openly offensive participation would yield only limited military advantages, whilst the political and economic risks to their domestic stability would be prohibitively high.
“Gulf nations do not want to be sucked into Israel’s war efforts, and they calculate that openly offensive participation would yield only limited military advantages at a very high political and economic price,” Krieg explained.
Threatened economic diversification
Meanwhile, for Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, this war raises significant concerns. Beyond threats to energy infrastructure lies a threat to their economic diversification projects.
The war is viewed as jeopardising their ambitions to attract tourists and foreign capital to the region. Additionally, the conflict tests the security architecture that has bound Gulf nations to Washington for decades.
“The historic oil-for-security partnership between Riyadh and Washington is now beginning to be questioned for its effectiveness amid a rain of aerial attacks,” according to AFP.
Frustration with US policy is also being voiced by influential regional figures. Billionaire businessman Khalaf al-Habtoor criticised Washington via social media, saying it had dragged the region to the brink of warfare.