Apocalypse for Online Couriers, Replacements Offer Cheaper Delivery Fees

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The era of human online couriers is beginning to face serious threats. This is because autonomous delivery robots and drones for food are now predicted to replace the role of drivers.

With robots and drones, it is said that delivery costs (shipping fees) can be reduced to just around US$1 or approximately Rp16,000 per order.

The latest report from Barclays states that autonomous delivery technology has the potential to save costs of up to US$8-US$9 per delivery compared to the traditional courier model. This efficiency is seen as capable of opening up global profit potential of up to US$16 billion per year for the food delivery industry.

Currently, the cost of robot and drone deliveries is still around US$5-US$7 per order in the early market. Nevertheless, this figure is already US$3-US$4 cheaper than deliveries using human couriers. In the long term, these costs are projected to drop dramatically to US$1 per delivery.

Several major platforms are beginning to adopt it. DoorDash is partnering with sidewalk robot operators and drones to accelerate technology adoption. This step is described by Barclays as a clear strategic shift in the global food delivery industry, as quoted from Reuters, Thursday (16/4/2026).

Although still in the early stages, the penetration of autonomous deliveries is currently below 1% of total global orders. However, Barclays estimates that the figure will rise to 2% by the end of this decade and surge to around 10% by 2035.

In the short term, Barclays assesses that DoorDash and Chinese giant Meituan will be the most benefited parties because they have already implemented commercialisation earlier.

Meanwhile, Uber is also seen to be in a strong position to capitalise on the automation trend. Dutch technology investor Prosus is even projected to be a long-term beneficiary of this shift.

Other players such as Delivery Hero, its Middle East unit Talabat, and Southeast Asian super app Grab are said to still be in the testing phase with potential benefits in the medium to long term.