Anticipating the US-Israel–Iran War, Experts Urge Government to Strengthen Mitigation
Indonesia has suspended discussion on the Peace Council. Escalating conflict between Iran, the US-led alliance including Israel in the Middle East is beginning to have serious impacts on Indonesia’s stability. M. Syauqillah, Director of the Institute for Strategic Transformation (IFORSTRA) and terrorism analyst, highlighted a shift of danger from the battlefield to the digital realm, fuelling social fragmentation. According to him, radical narratives such as calls for jihad, khilafat, and pro-Syiah sentiment are beginning to exploit public emotions on social media.
‘Rising tensions on social media widen the risk of lone actors or individuals who are self-radicalised,’ Syauqillah said in a statement on Sunday (8/3/2026). He urged the government to prepare a comprehensive mitigation strategy from moderate to extreme levels to respond to security and social fragmentation impacts.
On the economy and energy resilience, Binus University International Relations lecturer Tia Mariatul Kibtiah explained that Indonesia’s national oil reserves currently remain sufficient for only 20 days amid the Hormuz Strait crisis threats. ‘Indonesia’s high oil import dependence is not matched by adequate domestic mitigation capacity,’ she said. The situation is worsened by the Indonesian Armed Forces’ (TNI) three-status alert to anticipate possible mass demonstrations due to social vulnerability triggered by global escalation.
Meanwhile, Middle East analyst from the University of Indonesia, M. Syaroni Rofii, described the conflict as an asymmetric war involving US-Israel nuclear technology against Iran’s drone superiority. He predicted pressure on national fuel supplies would directly affect micro-business sectors. Syaroni advised Indonesia to pursue shuttle diplomacy to position itself as a mediating actor, especially after Iran criticised Indonesia’s decision to join the Board of Peace (BoP) bloc. ‘Indonesia must be bold in taking a strategic role on the global stage amidst China and Russia opting to watch from afar,’ he added. (H-2)
The military conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran, which could widen global geopolitical tension and impact economic stability, continues. As missiles strike kill more than 1,000 Iranians, Teheran authorities have cut global internet to below 1%. The rupiah closed weaker at Rp16,872 per US dollar. See analyses of the Hormuz Strait tension’s impact on the rupiah and Indonesia’s economy. Unsoed academic Muhammad Yamin warned the Middle East conflict tests Indonesia’s energy resilience. See the impact of oil price increases on the state budget (APBN) and inflation. The rupiah closed weaker by 81 points or 0.48 percent to Rp16,868 per US dollar on Monday (2/3). The weakness is driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Copyright 2026 Media Group - mediaindonesia. All rights reserved.