Anti-Iraq moves a trigger for Bali explosion

Anti-Iraq moves a trigger for Bali explosion

B. Raman, Institute for Topical Studies Chennai, India,
The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

The Bali blasts represent the second terrorist strike probably
connected to the anniversary of the beginning of the United
States air strikes in Afghanistan on Oct. 7, and the preparations
for a possible U.S.-Britain intervention in Iraq to have
President Saddam Hussein overthrown.

The first was the ramming by a boat filled with explosives
against a French supertanker off Yemen on Oct. 6. A terrorist
group in Aden is reported to have claimed responsibility, but its
claim is yet to be verified.

While the Yemen incident was apparently a suicide attack, it
is not clear yet whether the Bali explosions were.

For many months now, Indonesia has been developing into a
major hub of Southeast Asia-based Islamic terrorist groups with
two motivations -- a pan-Islamic one aiming to achieve a
caliphate in Southeast Asia covering southern Thailand,
Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, southern Philippines and Brunei,
and an anti-Christian one targeting the Christian community, many
of whose members happen to be ethnic Chinese.

The developments in Indonesia have an interesting parallel in
the pan-Islamic and anti-Christian motivations operating in
tandem in Pakistan and the pan-Islamic and anti-Hindu motivations
operating in tandem in India.

The pan-Islamic organizations of Pakistan, which are members
of Osama bin Laden's International Islamic Front for Jihad
against the U.S. and Israel -- the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM),
the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (Huji), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM)
and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) -- seek to achieve an Islamic
caliphate in South Asia and look upon Hinduism as a corrupting
influence on Islam, not only in Pakistan but also in Indonesia.
They blame Hinduism for making Islam soft in Indonesia.

Against this background, the selection of Bali, with its
predominantly Hindu population, for this most devastating
terrorist strike is disquieting.

Indonesian President Megawati Soekarnoputri's mother was a
Muslim of Balinese Hindu origin, and Islamic extremist elements
in Indonesia referred to this before her election.

However, there is no evidence to show that the explosions had
anything to do with the predominantly Hindu nature of the island
or Megawati's family background.

Bali seems to have been chosen for the terrorist strike mainly
because security precautions there were very relaxed as it was
not considered by the Indonesian intelligence and security
agencies as a likely trouble spot.

In an assessment prepared in April, the security agencies had
identified six security "trouble spots" in Indonesia from the
point of view of the fight against Islamic terrorism -- Aceh,
Maluku, Papua, Sampit in Central Kalimantan, Poso in Central
Sulawesi and West Timor.

Indonesian intelligence officials say foreign terrorist groups
had used Poso as a training ground in recent years. The
attraction of Bali to the terrorists also arises from the fact
that it gets a large number of Australian and Western tourists.

Among the foreign nationals who fought in the International
Islamic Front as members of its Pakistani components were
American Muslims (mostly Afro-Americans), nationals/residents of
West European countries, Thais, Malaysians, Singaporeans who
projected themselves as Malays from Malaysia, and Indonesians.

Their total number was estimated at 200. Practically all of
them had been recruited by HUM, Huji and LET teams.

There were about 400 foreign students recruited by the HUM,
the Huji and the LET from Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, who
were studying at the various madrasah in Pakistan before being
inducted into the jihad.

Of the 190 being trained in Sindh, 86 were from Malaysia, 82
from Thailand and 22 from Indonesia.

Of the 151 being trained in Punjab, 61 were from Malaysia, 49
from Thailand and 41 from Indonesia. Of the 59 being trained in
the North-west Frontier Province, 21 were from Indonesia, 20 from
Malaysia and 18 from Thailand.

Thus, there were 167 Malaysians, 149 Thais and 84 Indonesians
being trained in the various madrasahs of Pakistan. Evidence
available indicates that while the terrorists from Malaysia and
possibly Singapore were trained in the headquarters of the JEM in
the Binori complex in Karachi, those from Indonesia were trained
in the Muridke complex of the LET, near Lahore.

The HUM had always been training recruits from southern
Philippines and Myanmar, in addition to those from Xinjiang,
Chechnya, Dagestan and the Central Asian republics. The Huji
trains those from Bangladesh.

Before Oct. 7 last year, the training camps of the HUM and the
Huji were located in eastern Afghanistan. It is not known where
they have been moved since then. However, it is known that, in
the past, they had used the infrastructure of the Tablighi Jamaat
in Raiwind, in Punjab, for training purposes.

Since July, unconfirmed rumors have been circulating in
Karachi and elsewhere about a large number of members of the al
Qaeda, including some leaders such as Ayman Al-Zawahiri, Osama's
No. 2, having escaped to Bangladesh, with the help of the Huji,
which has an active branch in Bangladesh assisted by the
Bangladeshi military-intelligence establishment.

What seems to have happened and is still happening is that
many Bangladeshis, Arakanese, Malays from Singapore and Malaysia,
Indonesians and Filipinos, who had fought as members of the HUM,
the Huji and the LET against the Northern Alliance and
subsequently against the U.S. in Afghanistan, have been finding
their way, with the help of the Huji and the Jamaat-e-Islami of
Bangladesh, which is a member of the ruling coalition in Dhaka,
into Bangladesh.

Unconfirmed reports also mentioned the presence in Bangladesh
of Riduan Isamuddin of Indonesia, better known as Hambali, the
36-year-old cleric wanted by the U.S. and four Southeast Asian
countries as the terrorist mastermind of the Asian operations of
Osama's al-Qaeda network.

It is likely some of these terrorist dregs have since sneaked
back to their countries of origin. The Bali explosions probably
mark the return to Indonesia of some of the dregs from
Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The talk in the Pakistani madrasahs has been that members of
the International Islamic Front would be carrying out a well-
orchestrated series of terrorist attacks against Western
nationals and interests in different parts of the world as
warning signals to pre-empt U.S.-British military strikes against
Iraq.

The attacks on the French tanker off Yemen and in Bali were
apparently part of this planned series, and more are likely as
the U.S. and Britain go ahead with their preparations for an
attack on Iraq.