Anindya Receives Report from Indonesian Businesspeople on Iran War Effects: How Bad Is It?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The Chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), Anindya Novyan Bakrie, has revealed that the business world is currently at a strategic crossroads amid global geopolitical pressures, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, which is impacting supply chains and business costs.

“In a situation like this, the focus of the government and the business world must choose whether it is purely efficiency or efficiency to return to growth. These are two paths that must be taken, meaning they must be chosen,” Anindya said during a press conference at his office in Jakarta on Friday (25/4/2026).

According to him, business actors are currently tending to choose the efficiency path as an initial step to drive growth again.

“From the business perspective, (business actors) choose efficiency to quickly return to growth. Of course, we do not deny that what is happening in the Middle East has an impact not just for 1-2 months or 1-2 quarters, it could be longer. Because this changes the order of the supply chain,” he explained.

This statement aligns with the results of the Kadin Indonesia Business Pulse survey for Q1-2026. The survey, involving 210 respondents from 27 provinces, shows that business conditions have weakened compared to the previous quarter. The proportion of business actors stating that business conditions are not better increased from 34.8% in Q4-2025 to 40.5% in Q1-2026. Meanwhile, those feeling conditions have improved decreased to 25.2%.

Pressure is also evident in the industrial sector, where negative perceptions have risen to 44.3%. This condition is triggered by weakening purchasing power, rising operational costs such as raw materials and energy, and distribution disruptions due to global dynamics.

Anindya said that Kadin routinely monitors business sentiment through this survey.

“Coincidentally, every quarter, Kadin conducts the Kadin Business Pulse. We want to know the sentiment of companies under Kadin’s auspices. This is different; these are companies, not individuals,” he said.

Anindya assessed that the survey results show a fairly sharp difference in attitudes among business actors.

“From the survey results, there is a dichotomy between those who are ready and those who are not,” he stated.

As for the group that is not ready, Anindya said they tend to focus on efficiency and hope for policy cushions, while those who are ready are pushing for regulatory ease and incentives for expansion.

“Whereas those who are ready actually want to focus on getting ease from the government policy side for the time being, but to get incentives to reinvest and develop their businesses,” he continued.

Based on the data from the survey conducted by his side, 36.7% of business actors stated they are ready to face geopolitical impacts, 32.4% are neutral, and 25.8% admit they are not ready. Meanwhile, the main step taken is operational cost efficiency (33.9%), followed by other strategies such as diversifying trading partners and adjusting supply chains.

Anindya likened this situation to stock market dynamics. “So indeed, as usual, when we see stocks falling, there are two thoughts: whether this is a buying opportunity, or rather a place to cut losses,” he said.

He mentioned that the composition of optimistic and pessimistic business actors is relatively balanced.

“So from Kadin’s view, this dichotomy occurs and the numbers are similar, around 35% each. The middle ones around 30% are certainly focusing on wait and see,” Anindya said.

Amid global pressures that are difficult to control, such as energy prices and geopolitical conflicts, business actors assess that the government’s role is crucial. Nearly half of the factors affecting business conditions are seen as within domestic control.

“What’s interesting in the respondents’ responses is that almost 50% is within the scope that can be managed,” he said.

He added that government policies, bureaucratic ease, and access to financing are key.

“We see that almost 50% comes from government policies, from bureaucratic ease. And of course from this side, banking ease in which the government has a significant role,” he said.

The survey also shows clear expectations from business actors for government support, ranging from fiscal incentives, ease of financing, to exchange rate stability and logistics support.

Nevertheless, optimism remains maintained. Around 39.5% of respondents believe business conditions will improve in Q2-2026, driven by government policies and global market developments.

Anindya emphasised the importance of synergy between the government and the business world to face global pressures.

“What I see is that the government is very responsive and aware. Of course, Kadin will continue to cooperate and align, because this is the voice of friends, both in provincial Kadins and associations,” he concluded.