Analysts warn smartphone prices set to rise as memory costs soar
Jakarta — Global market research firm Counterpoint has warned of the potential for smartphone price increases in 2026 as the costs of RAM memory components continue to rise.
According to the firm’s analysis, RAM costs for smartphones have increased by 50 per cent quarter-on-quarter, whilst NAND storage costs have climbed more than 90 per cent quarter-on-quarter.
“Higher retail prices are inevitable in 2026 as cost increases will be passed on to consumers,” said Shenghao Bai, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint, in a statement released on Tuesday.
Rising memory costs have had a significant impact on Bill of Materials (BoM), or the material cost for smartphones. When manufacturing a typical entry-level smartphone with 6GB LPDDR4X RAM and 128GB eMMC storage, producers must allocate 43 per cent of total smartphone BoM to memory—an increase of 25 per cent compared to the previous quarter.
For mid-range smartphones (400–600 US dollars) featuring 8GB LPDDR5X RAM and 256GB UFS 4.0 storage, manufacturers will spend 15 per cent more on RAM and 11 per cent more on storage. These estimates apply to smartphones assembled in the first quarter of 2026, whilst in the second quarter, RAM costs are forecast to rise 20 per cent and storage costs 16 per cent.
Premium smartphones (above 800 US dollars) may have larger margins to help absorb the impact of price increases; however, this market segment also faces additional challenges, including the high cost of flagship 2nm chipsets.
Counterpoint estimates that BoM will increase by 100–150 US dollars in Q2 for smartphones featuring 16GB LPDDR5X HKMG RAM and 512GB UFS 4.1 storage. RAM will account for 23 per cent of BoM and storage will represent 18 per cent.
With all projected increases in material costs, smartphone retail prices will also rise accordingly. Counterpoint forecasts entry-level smartphones will become approximately 30 US dollars more expensive, whilst premium smartphones may see price increases of 150–200 US dollars.
“In 2026, smartphone manufacturers will struggle to balance component costs, gross margins, and shipment targets. Those heavily dependent on entry-level models to drive market share will face significant risk of short-term losses,” concluded Bai.