Analysts Say BBCA Shares Pressured by Macro Sentiment, See Their Recommendations
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Analysts assess that the outflow of foreign funds affecting the share price of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) at the end of last week was more influenced by macroeconomic sentiment. This is because BBCA’s fundamental condition remains solid with managed risks.
BBCA’s share price closed weaker by 5.84% at Rp6,050 on Friday (24/4/2026), the lowest level since 2021 or the Covid-19 pandemic period. In one day, net foreign sell (NFS) in this stock reached Rp2.1 trillion, reflecting the intense selling action by global investors.
Trimegah Sekuritas analyst Jonathan Gunawan stated that the pressure is not only occurring in BBCA but is widespread across other major bank stocks. Shares of PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) fell 2.81% to Rp4,500 with net foreign selling of Rp655 billion, while PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) weakened 2.85% to Rp3,070 with NFS of Rp447.3 billion.
“Banks are like the heart that pumps blood flow to all joints of the economy. If the macro prospects worsen, banking shares will be the first to be impacted. Looking at it, all big banks have weakened since the beginning of the year accompanied by significant net foreign selling. So this is sectoral pressure, not specific to BBCA,” he said in his statement on Sunday (26/4/2026).
He explained that one of the main triggers of the pressure comes from the ongoing Iran conflict with the United States and Israel. This condition keeps energy prices high and pressures global growth expectations, while also burdening exchange rates.
“The rise in energy prices will increase costs for many companies. As a result, overall corporate profit growth has the potential to slow,” he added.
In addition to geopolitical factors, negative sentiment also comes from changes in Indonesia’s outlook by global rating agencies and MSCI’s review of the domestic stock market. This combination drives fund outflows from emerging markets, including Indonesia.
Nevertheless, Jonathan emphasised that BBCA’s fundamentals remain strong and relatively resilient to external pressures. In fact, the company is striving to maintain investor appeal through a policy of distributing interim dividends up to three times a year.
“If we look deeper, BBCA’s fundamentals are currently still solid,” he said.
In the first quarter of 2026, BBCA recorded net profit of Rp14.7 trillion or 4% annual growth.
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas analysts Victor Stefano and Naura Reyhan Muchlis stated that this performance is still in line with market expectations.
“BBCA’s profit remains in line with expectations, with strong non-interest income able to offset pressure on NIM,” they wrote in their research.
Credit growth was recorded at around 6% annually, with the corporate segment as the main support. Meanwhile, the consumer segment still faces challenges, particularly in vehicle financing.
From a risk perspective, BBCA’s asset quality is assessed to remain maintained. Improvements in the wholesale segment are able to offset weakness in the retail segment, so the overall risk profile remains stable.