Analysts Project Rupiah Weakening Amid US-Iran Conflict

Currency analyst Lukman Leong at Doo Financial Futures has projected that the Indonesian rupiah will weaken on Monday as a result of the escalating conflict between Iran and the United States.

Leong predicts the rupiah will depreciate to a range of 16,750-16,900 per US dollar. The weakening of the rupiah is driven by market participants’ tendency to avoid risky assets and shift funds to assets considered safer.

“The rupiah is expected to weaken and move volatilely against the US dollar amid risk-off sentiment from the escalation of conflict in the Middle East,” Leong told Antara in Jakarta on Monday, 2 March 2026.

Nonetheless, he added that Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to intervene soon. The rupiah’s exchange rate at the opening of trading in Jakarta on Monday morning moved weaker by 42 points or 0.25 per cent to 16,829 per US dollar from the previous close of 16,787 per US dollar.

It was previously reported that on Saturday morning, 28 February 2026 local time, the United States and Israel launched a series of attacks on Iran, including the capital Tehran, causing infrastructure damage and civilian casualties.

Iran subsequently launched retaliatory missile strikes on Israeli territory and US military facilities in the Middle East.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was confirmed killed as a result of the US-Israeli missile strike on his workplace.

Following Khamenei’s death, the Iranian government announced a 40-day mourning period and one week of work suspension.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian Armed Forces, in their written statement, vowed to avenge Khamenei’s death.