Analysts: Global Oil Prices Could Continue Rising If Hormuz Strait Remains Closed
Jakarta – Global oil prices surged sharply at the beginning of the week as escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies.
Analysts have warned that the price surge has no historical precedent, particularly if disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz persist for an extended period.
On Monday, 9 March 2026, global oil prices recorded their largest single-day increase in history, though they subsequently trimmed some of the gains.
According to CNBC reporting, the international benchmark Brent crude oil price for May 2026 delivery was trading up 11.6 per cent at 103.47 US dollars per barrel on Monday. Meanwhile, the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price for April 2026 delivery rose 12.2 per cent to 101.97 US dollars per barrel.
Earlier in the same trading session, Brent crude had surged to 119.5 US dollars per barrel, whilst WTI crude reached an intraday high of 119.48 US dollars per barrel.
Analysts have warned that these conditions could potentially trigger an unprecedented energy crisis if circumstances do not change rapidly.
“Unless there is a change in the near term, we potentially face an energy crisis that would be transformative and unprecedented,” said one analyst to CNBC.
According to this assessment, whilst various nations maintain oil reserves, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause these reserves to deplete rapidly.
When asked about potential oil price trajectories in such a scenario, the analyst stated that it was difficult to predict given the absence of historical precedent. “I apologise, but we are entering territory of speculation based on knowledge. I mean, there is no precedent for this. There are no limits,” the analyst said.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most strategically important energy shipping route. Typically, approximately 20 per cent of global oil and gas supplies transit through this maritime passage.