Analysts Forecast Global Oil Prices Amid Escalating US–Israel–Iran Conflict and Threat of Strait of Hormuz Closure

Global oil prices experienced significant increases following military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, triggering fresh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The escalation is regarded as favourable for the energy sector, particularly global oil prices.

Brent crude oil surged approximately 10 per cent to reach US$80, or approximately Rp 1.34 million (at an estimated exchange rate of Rp 16,830 per US dollar) per barrel in over-the-counter trading on Sunday, 1 March 2026. This rise was driven by heightened market concerns regarding potential disruptions to global energy supplies, as Iran is one of the world’s major oil-producing nations.

However, oil prices declined slightly during Monday, 2 March 2026 trading. Brent crude strengthened by more than 4 per cent to US$76.16 per barrel, or approximately Rp 1.28 million.

Meanwhile, US crude oil was trading at US$69.67 per barrel, or approximately Rp 1.17 million, after rising nearly 4 per cent, according to the BBC. This represents the highest level since July, following a previous record of US$73, or approximately Rp 1.22 million per barrel, recorded on Friday, 28 February 2026.

Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS, stated that the primary driver of oil price increases extends beyond military strikes alone. He identified potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz as a critical concern, given its role as a vital global distribution route.

“Whilst military strikes themselves support higher oil prices, the key factor here is closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” Parmar said, according to ChannelNewsAsia on Monday, 2 March 2026.

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically important passage that supplies more than 20 per cent of global oil supplies. Tanker operators, oil companies, and trading houses have temporarily halted shipments of crude oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas through this route following warnings from the Iranian government cautioning vessels against transit.

According to Parmar, prolonged disruption could trigger further price increases. He predicts that global oil prices could rise by up to US$20 per barrel from current levels.

“We anticipate prices opening considerably closer to US$100 per barrel, and possibly even surpassing that level should the Strait of Hormuz closure prove prolonged,” Parmar stated.