Analyst: Sjafrie's Name in Presidential Race Extends List of Individual Candidates
Jakarta (ANTARA) — Political analyst Ray Rangkuti has assessed that the presence of Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin in the pool of prospective presidential candidates adds to the list of individual contenders for the 2029 presidential election.
This is because, he said, Sjafrie has emerged through his own track record and without party backing.
“There are increasing opportunities for individual figures to be nominated as national leaders. The presence of Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin extends that list of individual presidential candidates,” Ray said in a statement received in Jakarta on Friday.
According to Ray, this phenomenon is nothing new in Indonesian politics. He cited the example of regional head elections, where many individual candidates have emerged and a good number have successfully become regional heads.
He noted that some of them were still nominated by parties, but they built their image through individual acceleration. In line with this, he observed that various party-backed figures are becoming less popular.
On the other hand, he assessed that Sjafrie’s presence also adds to the list of rivals for Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, whose position is increasingly being challenged by various other figures.
“Even though Gibran’s name still sits at the top as the vice-presidential candidate with the highest electability, the emergence of new individuals adds to the number of candidates worthy of consideration by Prabowo. This in itself narrows Gibran’s chances,” he said.
However, he cautioned that Sjafrie’s candidacy could be both an opportunity and a source of discomfort for President Prabowo Subianto.
If paired with Prabowo, Ray suggested there could be obstacles as it would represent a combination of retired military officers without coalition party support.
“But if he is not with Prabowo, Prabowo would naturally narrow his chances of advancing. This could be a blessing but simultaneously a wedge between Prabowo and Sjafrie,” Ray said.
Previously, the latest survey by the Indonesian Public Institute (IPI) showed that a number of new faces have entered the pool of prospective 2029 presidential candidates, including Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, several governors, and Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.
IPI researcher Abdan Sakura revealed that the emergence of these new faces is inseparable from several factors influencing their electability, such as leadership, prominence, track record, media coverage, integrity, and vision and work programmes.
He cited four indicators strengthening Sjafrie’s electability: leadership and prominence at 44 per cent, leadership track record at 17 per cent, environmental and media endorsement at 12 per cent, and integrity at 10 per cent.
“Figures such as Pramono Anung, Dedi Mulyadi, and Sjafrie have emerged as potential figures who have received fairly strong viability assessments, although these have not yet fully converted into electoral support,” Abdan said.
That gap, he said, opens space for new political dynamics, particularly if a crisis occurs, coalition maps shift, or “key players” are absent.