Analyst: Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin Emerges in the Presidential Field, Echoing SBY in the 2004 Elections

Political analyst and director of Lingkar Madani (Lima), Ray Rangkuti, says the emergence of Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin in the field of presidential contenders for the 2029 election marks another notable entry. He argues the pattern could mirror the 2004 presidential race, when Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) became the rival to Megawati Soekarnoputri, then chairperson of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Rangkuti noted that SBY’s ascent drew attention because he was the Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs under President Megawati.

“Could a repeat of the 2004 drama occur? What was that drama? A TNI officer who served as a cabinet member when asked by Megawati whether he would run for president replied that he would not, but continued to work to popularise his name,” Ray said in a statement on Wednesday (4/3/2027).

Megawati, Ray said, at that time resigned and dismissed SBY from the post of Menko Polkam. He said the decision benefited SBY because his name rose. “Give up, Madam Mega; when the dismissal was issued, his name soared and he became the first political casualty of Madam Mega. He then seized the opportunity to form the Demokrat Party and launch his bid in the 2004 election against Mega, and he won,” he explained.

Ray admitted he doubted whether the same story could occur with Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, noting that the 20-year cycle had passed. Nevertheless, he added, anything can happen in politics, so the dynamics ahead of the 2029 election are worth watching.

“Will the same story happen? Of course not, because the cycle is 20 years; 2004 (the SBY incident), now 2026 and the contest is 2029. So 2029 is already 25 years and in Indonesia, political cycles generally occur every 20 years. Will Sjafrie follow the same 20-year cycle as SBY did in 2004? We will wait to see how it plays out,” Ray concluded.