Analyst Predicts Rupiah Could Hit Rp 19,000 per Dollar by Late June, Potentially Reaching Rp 25,000
Amidst persistent global economic pressures, a grim projection is haunting the rupiah exchange rate. An analyst predicts that the ‘Garuda’ currency could potentially breach the Rp 19,000 per US dollar level within weeks, a figure that would represent one of its weakest points in history.
This prediction was delivered by Ibrahim Assua0adibi, Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures. According to him, a combination of international geopolitical tensions, a strengthening US dollar, and high US interest rate policies could continue to pressure the rupiah in the near future.
“By the end of June, there is a very high possibility, 99.99 per cent, that the rupiah will be at 19,000 per US dollar,” Ibrahim stated via voice message on Sunday (7/6/2026).
For trading in the coming week, Ibrahim expects the rupiah exchange rate to move within the range of Rp 17,950 to Rp 18,250 per US dollar. However, he believes pressure on the rupiah will not subside if external factors continue to worsen.
He noted that one indicator to watch closely is the movement of the US Dollar Index. He expects the dollar index to have a support area at the 99.00 level and resistance at the 101.00 level.
“This means there is a possibility that the dollar index will sharply strengthen again,” he said.
If this scenario occurs, the impact will not be felt by the rupiah alone. Ibrahim predicts that global oil prices will be pushed upwards, while gold and precious metal prices will face pressure.
He projects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to move within the range of US$ 85 to US$ 101 per barrel.
Furthermore, Ibrahim identified three main factors that could trigger volatility in global financial markets. The first factor is the deteriorating geopolitical situation, particularly in the Middle East.
He believes tensions between the United States and Iran still have the potential to expand into a wider conflict. Ibrahim highlighted US attacks on several strategic points related to Iran’s radar systems in the Strait of Hormuz region, including Qeshm Island.
He assessed that the chance of peace between the two nations is not very high. Furthermore, US statements regarding damage to several of its military bases in the Middle East could serve as a justification for taking more aggressive steps against Iran.
The second factor stems from US domestic political dynamics. Ibrahim noted a lack of synchronisation between the stance of Congress and President Donald Trump’s policies regarding the Middle East conflict.
“The rejection of the budget by Congress means Trump will not stop the war with Iran,” he said.
The third factor is the direction of US Federal Reserve policy. Ibrahim expects the Fed to maintain high interest rate policies and even potentially raise them by 205 basis points in the third quarter of this year.
According to him, this condition will further strengthen the US dollar while providing additional pressure on emerging market currencies, including the rupiah.
Ibrahim also assessed that the trend of declining gold prices could prompt the public to switch to buying US dollars. This shift in assets, he said, could potentially accelerate the strengthening of the dollar and deepen the pressure on the rupiah.
He even revealed a more extreme scenario if the Middle East conflict continues until the end of the year.
“If it lasts until the end of the year, improvements will only appear by the end of 2027, making a rupiah price of 25,000 per dollar very plausible,” he remarked.
Nevertheless, these projections remain analytical assessments that depend heavily on global geopolitical developments, US monetary policy, and the responses of the government and Bank Indonesia in maintaining national economic stability.