Amidst persistent global economic pressures, a grim projection is\nhaunting the rupiah exchange rate. An analyst predicts that the \u2018Garuda\u2019\ncurrency could potentially breach the Rp 19,000 per US dollar level\nwithin weeks, a figure that would represent one of its weakest points in\nhistory.<\/p>\n
This prediction was delivered by Ibrahim Assua0adibi, Director of PT\nTraze Andalan Futures. According to him, a combination of international\ngeopolitical tensions, a strengthening US dollar, and high US interest\nrate policies could continue to pressure the rupiah in the near\nfuture.<\/p>\n
\u201cBy the end of June, there is a very high possibility, 99.99 per\ncent, that the rupiah will be at 19,000 per US dollar,\u201d Ibrahim stated\nvia voice message on Sunday (7\/6\/2026).<\/p>\n
For trading in the coming week, Ibrahim expects the rupiah exchange\nrate to move within the range of Rp 17,950 to Rp 18,250 per US dollar.\nHowever, he believes pressure on the rupiah will not subside if external\nfactors continue to worsen.<\/p>\n
He noted that one indicator to watch closely is the movement of the\nUS Dollar Index. He expects the dollar index to have a support area at\nthe 99.00 level and resistance at the 101.00 level.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis means there is a possibility that the dollar index will sharply\nstrengthen again,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
If this scenario occurs, the impact will not be felt by the rupiah\nalone. Ibrahim predicts that global oil prices will be pushed upwards,\nwhile gold and precious metal prices will face pressure.<\/p>\n
He projects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to move\nwithin the range of US$ 85 to US$ 101 per barrel.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, Ibrahim identified three main factors that could trigger\nvolatility in global financial markets. The first factor is the\ndeteriorating geopolitical situation, particularly in the Middle\nEast.<\/p>\n
He believes tensions between the United States and Iran still have\nthe potential to expand into a wider conflict. Ibrahim highlighted US\nattacks on several strategic points related to Iran\u2019s radar systems in\nthe Strait of Hormuz region, including Qeshm Island.<\/p>\n
He assessed that the chance of peace between the two nations is not\nvery high. Furthermore, US statements regarding damage to several of its\nmilitary bases in the Middle East could serve as a justification for\ntaking more aggressive steps against Iran.<\/p>\n
The second factor stems from US domestic political dynamics. Ibrahim\nnoted a lack of synchronisation between the stance of Congress and\nPresident Donald Trump\u2019s policies regarding the Middle East\nconflict.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe rejection of the budget by Congress means Trump will not stop\nthe war with Iran,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The third factor is the direction of US Federal Reserve policy.\nIbrahim expects the Fed to maintain high interest rate policies and even\npotentially raise them by 205 basis points in the third quarter of this\nyear.<\/p>\n
According to him, this condition will further strengthen the US\ndollar while providing additional pressure on emerging market\ncurrencies, including the rupiah.<\/p>\n
Ibrahim also assessed that the trend of declining gold prices could\nprompt the public to switch to buying US dollars. This shift in assets,\nhe said, could potentially accelerate the strengthening of the dollar\nand deepen the pressure on the rupiah.<\/p>\n
He even revealed a more extreme scenario if the Middle East conflict\ncontinues until the end of the year.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf it lasts until the end of the year, improvements will only appear\nby the end of 2027, making a rupiah price of 25,000 per dollar very\nplausible,\u201d he remarked.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, these projections remain analytical assessments that\ndepend heavily on global geopolitical developments, US monetary policy,\nand the responses of the government and Bank Indonesia in maintaining\nnational economic stability.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/analyst-predicts-rupiah-could-hit-rp-19-000-per-dollar-by-late-june-potentially-reaching-rp-25-000-1780872414", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }