Analyst Prediction on Rupiah Exchange Rate Tomorrow

Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, Ibrahim Assuaibi, predicts that the rupiah exchange rate will remain at around Rp17,500 per US dollar tomorrow. This level is holding steady after today marking the weakest point. “For tomorrow’s trading, the rupiah currency will be volatile but close weaker in the range of Rp17,520 – 17,580 per dollar,” he said in a written statement on Tuesday, 12 May 2026. A number of domestic and international factors are influencing the rupiah’s weakening. Domestically, he views the Q1 economic growth of 5.61 per cent not as a sudden surge in the economy, but due to comparison with a previously low base. The government claims this achievement is the highest among G20 member countries. According to Ibrahim, the Q1 economic growth cannot immediately be deemed healthy, as there are variables that need to be monitored and guarded against. The rupiah’s weakening, said Ibrahim, could be caused by Indonesia’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping to 49.1 in April 2026, from 50.1 the previous month. “Due to weakening demand post-holidays and increasing production pressures from geopolitical shocks and supply issues,” he stated. There is also uncertainty over the direction of mining royalty imposition policies, as well as the unclear direction of increasing state revenue amid the government’s massive spending, which makes the market worried about fiscal conditions. The market is also awaiting the MSCI announcement on the potential reduction of Indonesia’s weight, as Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) assessments previously caused the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) to plummet at the end of January.