Analyst Optimistic Pertamax Price Projected to Decline Gradually, Here's Why

Yayan Satyaki, an energy economics lecturer at Padjadjaran University (Unpad), projects that Pertamax-type fuel prices will decrease gradually from Rp16,250 per litre in June, towards a range of Rp12,100-Rp13,500 per litre by December 2026. He noted that price reductions for non-subsidised fuel have already become evident, as seen with Dexlite and Pertamina Dex.

The projected price levels suggest Pertamax could drop to Rp15,228 per litre in July, followed by Rp14,557 in August, Rp14,112 in September, Rp13,814 in October, Rp13,614 in November, and finally Rp13,479 in December. This is based on the assumption that the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) will gradually decline towards 90.6 US dollars per barrel by December 2026, alongside a strengthening exchange rate from Rp17,927 to Rp16,959 during the same period.

Yayan noted that the dynamics of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain volatile. Brent crude prices briefly touched 117 US dollars per barrel in April before quickly correcting to the 78 US dollar range following a US-Iran peace framework originally intended to be signed in Switzerland. However, Brent crude prices rose back above 80 US dollars per barrel on Friday (19/6) as investors weighed increased geopolitical risks following the cancellation of planned US-Iran negotiations and new Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

Global oil prices, he added, directly influence the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) used to determine non-subsidised fuel prices. In the 2026 State Budget (APBN), the macro assumption sets the ICP at 70 US dollars per barrel. “The government needs to prepare scenario simulations, for instance, an ICP of 70-90 US dollars per barrel,” he said.

PT Pertamina (Persero) has announced price adjustments for Pertamax in several regions across Indonesia. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirmed that non-subsidised fuel prices, such as Pertamax, can follow global crude oil trends and market economic conditions.

The National Economic Council (DEN) believes that the peace agreement between the United States and Iran has contributed to the decline in global oil prices. Meanwhile, previous increases in Pertamax prices were viewed as adjustments to global conditions, specifically rising energy prices and the weakening of the Rupiah.

Gerindra politician Andre Rosiade emphasised that the government must maintain subsidised fuel prices to protect public purchasing power amidst global dynamics.