Analyst Optimistic Pertamax Price Projected to Decline Gradually, Here's Why

Energy economics lecturer at Padjadjaran University (Unpad), Yayan Satyaki, projects that the price of Pertamax fuel will decline gradually from Rp16,250 per litre in June towards a range of Rp12,100 to Rp13,500 per litre by December 2026. He argues that a reduction in non-subsidised fuel prices is already possible, as seen with Dexlite and Pertamina Dex. The projected price trajectory sees Pertamax falling to Rp15,228 per litre in July, then Rp14,557 in August, Rp14,112 in September, Rp13,814 in October, Rp13,614 in November, and Rp13,479 in December, based on the assumption that the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) will gradually decline towards 90.6 US dollars per barrel by December 2026 and the exchange rate will strengthen from Rp17,927 to Rp16,959 over the same period. Yayan noted that the dynamics of the conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran remain fluid. Brent crude oil prices briefly touched 117 US dollars per barrel in April before quickly correcting to around 78 US dollars per barrel following a US-Iran peace framework initially set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday (19/6). Brent prices then rose back above 80 US dollars per barrel on Friday (19/6) as investors weighed increased geopolitical risks after the cancellation of planned negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as new Israeli strikes in Lebanon. He added that global oil prices also influence the average Indonesian crude price used to determine non-subsidised fuel prices. The 2026 state budget’s macro assumptions set the ICP at 70 US dollars per barrel. “The government needs to prepare scenario simulations, for example an ICP of 70 to 90 US dollars per barrel,” he said.