Amid Iran Conflict, Bitcoin Rises: A Sign the Golden Era Has Ended?
In Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The movement of cryptocurrency markets this week shows striking resilience amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly those involving Iran.
Unlike traditional patterns where investors typically flock to physical gold during crises, over the past few days the market has seen a shift in capital flows. While global gold prices have come under pressure due to the ongoing conflict, Bitcoin (BTC) has posted positive weekly performance.
This suggests a potential transition in Bitcoin’s function as an alternative safe-haven asset, particularly for market participants in the affected regional area.
Positive performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Based on the latest trading data, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $68,261.90. Although it recorded a small correction of -0.52% in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has still posted an overall gain of +3.03% over the week. This positive momentum indicates that selling pressure that had dominated the market is being absorbed by renewed demand from investors in the Middle East region.
A similar situation is seen in Ethereum (ETH). The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation was trading at $1,976.90. Although down 1.77% on the day, ETH still posted a weekly gain of 2.17%, keeping it near the psychological level of $2,000.
Dinamika Sektor Altcoin: Solana dan LEO Memimpin
In the altcoin sector, sentiment was mixed, but several large-cap assets showed solid resilience. Solana (SOL) and BNB were the main pillars with weekly gains of +5.67% to $86.98 and +5.66% to $632.50, respectively.
The exchange utility token UNUS SED LEO (LEO) posted the best weekly performance among top assets with a +7.76% rise to $9.21. On the other hand, some assets such as Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) lagged, posting weekly declines of -11.19% and -4.74% respectively.
Korelasi Geopolitik: Pergeseran dari Emas ke Bitcoin
The fundamental factor attracting major attention this week is the correlation between the geopolitics in Iran and the movement of stores of value assets. Historically, rising military or political tensions in the Middle East would trigger sharp spikes in gold prices. But what has happened recently is the opposite: global gold prices have fallen after the event due to a sell-on-news phenomenon, as investors take profits after the event expectations materialise.
Refinitiv data shows gold closed at US$5,086.47 per troy ounce, down 4.5% on Tuesday (3/3/2026). This weakness broke a five-day rally with a 3.5% gain. The decline also dragged gold to its lowest level since 19 February 2026, marking an eight-day decline.
Meanwhile, the rise in Bitcoin over the past week suggests some liquidity from the Middle East region may be flowing into the crypto market. In a crisis or regional banking uncertainty, Bitcoin offers advantages as a borderless, liquid asset not tied to any central bank’s jurisdiction. This liquidity transition reinforces the narrative that Bitcoin is gradually being used as a digital safe haven by investors seeking wealth protection beyond the traditional financial system.
Thus, it can be concluded that when a country experiences structural economic chaos, Bitcoin price movement begins as the domestic currency of that country becomes worthless.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the influx of buying from Middle Eastern communities due to the war could push Bitcoin to retest the resistance around US$72,000. This short-term rally is a reactive response to the urgent hedging needs in the affected region.
Nevertheless, the rise toward $72,000 could be viewed as a relief rally or a temporary rebound. Macro-economic considerations and historic four-year cycles suggest the market remains in a consolidation trend toward a base level.
After this geopolitical buying momentum fades, Bitcoin is projected to resume its downward trend. However, the primary long-term accumulation target remains in the $40,000 to $45,000 range, expected to be the cycle bottom in Q3 or Q4 2026.
Therefore, risk management discipline and cautious capital deployment remain the most advisable approach, as this rise is temporary, preserving capital for the longer game. But this can change at any time, depending on real-time money flow in the market.