America Actually Profits from the Oil Crisis, Here's the Explanation
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The surge in global oil prices over the past few weeks has left one anomaly. While world benchmark prices have skyrocketed, US oil has lagged behind.
The price differential between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent has widened to US$12.05 per barrel in Wednesday’s trading, the widest level since 2015.
Citing Reuters, this fact emerges amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran that is shaking Middle East energy supplies. Attacks on energy infrastructure, including the South Pars gas field, have driven Brent prices up faster. On the same day, Brent strengthened by 3.8%. WTI only moved slightly by 0.1%.
This directional difference has formed a wide price gap. The mechanism is simple. Brent reflects global risks, while WTI is more influenced by US domestic conditions. When geopolitical risks surge, Brent is pushed higher. On the other hand, domestic US supply is loose.
The Energy Information Administration reported that oil stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose to 27.52 million barrels, the highest since August 2024. The US government is also preparing to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as an effort to dampen prices. This additional supply is holding back WTI’s movement.
This situation opens up arbitrage opportunities. The wide price differential makes US oil appear cheap to international markets. Traders buy WTI, then ship it to Europe to sell at Brent prices. Shipping costs have indeed risen. Aframax tanker rates from the US Gulf to Europe have jumped to around US$6 million from the previous US$4.36 million. However, the price margin is still sufficient to keep transactions going.
Shipments of oil from the US Gulf have increased for the March to early April period. Empty ships are moving towards the US to pick up cargo. Export flows are expected to rise in the coming weeks as long as the price differential remains wide.
At this point, the US position changes. When other regions face supply disruptions, US oil flows to global markets in larger volumes. Lower domestic prices become the main attraction.
Throughout 2025, nearly 4 billion barrels of US oil were shipped to various countries. Demand is widespread, with Europe as one of the main destinations.
The Netherlands is the largest buyer with imports of around 419 million barrels. This oil enters via the Port of Rotterdam before being distributed to various European countries. Energy needs in the region have increased after supplies from Russia decreased since 2022.
Outside Europe, Latin America is also actively absorbing US oil. Mexico ranks second, followed by Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. Canada recorded imports of around 324 million barrels. Limitations in refineries and pipeline networks keep the country dependent on supplies from the US.
Asia remains present in the list of major buyers. South Korea, India, and China are still important markets. However, patterns have changed. China’s imports fell by around 81 million barrels in 2025. This decline is related to a shift to discounted oil from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia.
Indonesia is ranked 18th with imports of around 57 million barrels, equivalent to 1.5% of total US oil exports. This figure places Indonesia as part of the buyer network that also utilises energy supplies from Uncle Sam’s country.
The combination of lower WTI prices and a global buyer network forms a unique advantage for the US.
As long as the price differential remains wide, export flows have the potential to continue increasing. However, this space will not always be open. Rising logistics costs could pressure margins. If shipping costs rise too high, transactions could decrease and the price differential could narrow again.