Al-Qaeda brand of terror wins Asian recruits: Experts

Al-Qaeda brand of terror wins Asian recruits: Experts

Jane Macartney, Reuters, Jakarta

Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network has been described by experts
as a terror chain with franchises worldwide.

But this week's Jakarta bombing, if it turns out to be the
work of an al-Qaeda affiliate, suggests that head office may not
need a strong grip on its distant outposts.

Despite public revulsion at indiscriminate violence that kills
people from the local community and designated targets alike,
some analysts believe there will be no shortage of new recruits
to the cause.

"Smiling bomber" Amrozi's broad grin and thumbs-up gesture
after a court in Bali sentenced him to death on Thursday for last
year's nightclub bombings on the island must have chilled
victims, their relatives and moderate Muslims alike.

But to men like the Indonesian mechanic, schooled in Muslim
madrassas, such defiance could be an inspiration.

"I think that if he were executed...there could be martyr
affect which would likely be counterproductive," said Tim Huxley,
senior fellow for Asia-Pacific Security at the International
Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

"I think a death sentence, if carried out, is unlikely to act
as a deterrent, because some of the groups like Jamaah Islamiyah
(JI), who carried out the Bali attack and the attack in Jakarta a
few days ago, are committed to the idea of becoming martyrs," he
said.

The JW Marriott Hotel bombing suggests would-be martyrs can
expect to draw on the organization, experience and resources of
organizations such as the shadowy JI militant group that has
already emerged as the chief suspect.

Those resources appear to be formidable and the organization
still relatively intact even after 10 months at the forefront of
the Bali bombing manhunt.

"These guys don't rush into doing these things," said Zachary
Abuza, expert on security in Southeast Asia at Simmons College in
Boston. "I think it will come out in the investigation that they
had been planning this for at least two months."

Neither do those inspired by Osama bin Laden's brand of Islam
lack for soft targets, which by definition are impossible to
defend. "If you put security around a hotel then they'll hit a
mall. There are a lot of soft targets," said Abuza.

Jamaah Islamiyah has favored such targets since top operatives
changed strategy in early 2002. The group is seen as the Asian
link to al-Qaeda because members fought in Afghanistan and
because its operations chief, elusive Indonesian Hambali, is
believed to sit on al-Qaeda's military committee.

"But al-Qaeda may no longer have much contact with its Asian
franchise, relying instead on the momentum of its radical ideas.

"You have to beware of seeing this as al-Qaeda," said Huxley.
"I don't think you should see Jamaah Islamiyah as simply a branch
office, because there are local factors at work.

"Jamaah Islamiyah operates as an autonomous organization which
may have some ideological sympathies with al-Qaeda, may have had
funding links, but has its own organizational structure."

That was seen with the arrests last month in the coastal city
of Semarang in Central Java province of several members, along
with a cache of 1,200 detonators, weapons and around 900 kg
(2,000 lbs) of potassium chlorate.

Security experts say Indonesian police believe two trucks of
explosives may have already left Semarang and vanished into the
sprawling capital, Jakarta, before the police raid.

"We should be waiting for the other shoe to drop," said Abuza.

While orders on when and how to drop that shoe may come from
operatives such as Hambali, the most wanted terror suspect in
Asia, there is no need for al-Qaeda to play a role, experts say.

"A message goes out and it's up to the local cells as to how
they interpret that and put it into action," said Abuza, adding
that he believed the Marriott attack was almost certainly carried
by an autonomous cell after months of planning and preparation.

The similarity of the Bali bomb to the composition of the
Marriott explosives has been the first indication of links to JI
-- many of whose members are among the 38 men on trial for Bali.

The designs favored by Malaysian fugitive Azahari Husin, known
as the Demolition Man for his bomb-making expertise, were evident
in the use of a mobile phone to detonate the Marriott bomb and in
the choice of ingredients in the chemical cocktail.

If Azahari did not make the bomb, then its creator was
following his manual, said one expert.

"One would be foolish to underestimate JI's capabilities or
goals," wrote Abuza in a summary of the state of the group last
week.

"As many of the key operatives are at large, the organization
retains the capacity and will to launch devastating terror
attacks throughout the region."

With the Amrozi verdict coming exactly five years to the day
since over 200 people were killed and more than 1,000 injured in
simultaneous attacks on the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania
-- also blamed on bin Laden's al-Qaeda network -- it seems time
may not have diminished that capacity either.