Airlangga States Indonesia's Economy Remains Resilient Amid Global Challenges - BCA Sekuritas
Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto stated that Indonesia’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience amid a global dynamic filled with pressures.
With growth projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the World Bank ranging from 2.6 to 3.3 per cent, Indonesia managed to record 5.11 per cent growth in 2025.
In his remarks in Jakarta on Tuesday, Airlangga explained that this growth is among the highest among G20 member countries. National economic resilience is supported by strong domestic demand, including household consumption, investment, and government spending.
Stability in the external sector, disciplined policies, and inter-agency coordination also strengthen that foundation. Meanwhile, household consumption remains the main driver, contributing 54 per cent to GDP. This is reflected in the Mandiri Spending Index, which remains high at 360.7.
In the food sector, national rice production is approaching 34.7 million tonnes, with Perum Bulog’s rice reserves nearly reaching 4.6 million tonnes, one of the largest in history.
Meanwhile, in the energy sector, the government is promoting self-reliance through the B50 programme and recording an energy surplus of 4.84 million kilolitres.
“The economic growth projection for this year is above 5.3 per cent. And for the first quarter of this year, we are optimistic that Indonesia’s economic growth will be around 5.5 per cent,” Airlangga said.
Entering the second quarter of 2026, Airlangga assesses that Indonesia’s economy remains in a strong condition. This is reflected in controlled inflation, a trade balance surplus for 70 consecutive months, and high consumer confidence levels.
The manufacturing sector is also still in the expansion zone with an index of 50.1, while foreign exchange reserves stand at US$148.2 billion.
From the external side, increased exports of flagship commodities such as coal, rubber, nickel, copper, and aluminium, reaching US$47 billion, provide natural protection against pressures in the oil and gas sector.
Meanwhile, the state budget continues to act as an economic buffer through various stimuli, such as food assistance, energy subsidies, and transportation discounts totalling around Rp11.92 trillion. The state budget deficit is also kept low at 0.93 per cent of GDP as of March 2026.
“Then, Indonesia’s local currency transactions in 2025 increased to US$25.6 billion. This figure is double that of 2024, with countries such as Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, Japan, and China already accepting Indonesian QRIS payment transactions,” the Coordinating Minister said.
Furthermore, several social indicators also show improvements. The poverty rate has fallen to 8.25 per cent, the unemployment rate to 4.7 per cent, and the Gini ratio has decreased to 0.363. Investment realisation throughout 2025 also absorbed around 2.71 million new workers.
In driving long-term growth, the government is accelerating the downstreaming programme, which is a priority of President Prabowo Subianto.
Throughout 2025, downstreaming investments reached Rp584.1 trillion or about US$36.5 billion, growing 43.3 per cent year-on-year and contributing 30.2 per cent to total national investment.
The government is also strengthening the business climate through the establishment of the Task Force for Accelerating and Resolving Investment Issues (Satgas P2SP) and regulatory reforms through Government Regulation Number 28 of 2025.
These efforts include simplifying risk-based licensing and digitalisation through the OSS-RBA system. In addition, Special Economic Zones (KEK) continue to be developed in strategic sectors such as manufacturing, mineral downstreaming, digital economy, tourism, and health.