Airlangga Affirms Indonesia's Subsidised Fuel Prices Will Not Rise Yet
Airlangga Hartarto, Coordinating Minister for the Economy, has reiterated that there are no plans to raise the price of subsidised fuels. He said the government is awaiting possible movements in world crude oil prices.
‘Not yet (raising subsidised fuel prices); our APBN yesterday was US$70 per barrel as the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP). So we wait,’ Airlangga told reporters at Menara Batavia, Central Jakarta, on Thursday (5 March 2026).
As is known, world crude prices have continued to rise, above the assumptions set in the 2026 State Budget (APBN) of US$70 per barrel. Refinitiv cited that on Thursday (5 March 2026), Brent crude rose to US$83.82 per barrel, up 3%, and WTI to US$77.17 per barrel, up 3.4%.
The rise in world crude prices was triggered by the ongoing Iranian–Israeli conflict, with support from the United States. The conflict has even affected the Hormuz Strait – the artery of global oil trade, which handles around 20.1 million barrels per day.
Indonesia, as an importer, is among the countries affected by the closure of the Hormuz Strait. It should be noted that 19% of national oil imports come from the Persian Gulf strait.
In light of this, Airlangga said they cannot yet forecast when the war will end. What is clear is that the government continues to prepare scenarios or other alternatives.
Previously, Indonesia faced a similar situation when Russia–Ukraine conflict began early last year. At that time, oil prices and many global commodities surged.
For Indonesia, the situation had two sides: on the one hand, the government had to manage the subsidy burden, so it prepared the budget and used the APBN as a buffer to dampen price fluctuations. ‘On the one hand, related to subsidies, we maintain them; the government has prepared that subsidies will continue. The APBN will serve as a buffer to dampen price fluctuations,’ he said.
On the other hand, rising commodity prices can boost state revenue. Nevertheless, Airlangga said it is still too early to make further decisions. ‘But we certainly see the situation as too early to call. Too early,’ he added.
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia confirmed that subsidised fuel prices will not rise until Idul Fitri 2026. ‘I can confirm that subsidised fuel prices will not rise until the celebration of Eid al-Fitr, even if oil prices rise due to the Israel–US–Iran conflict,’ Bahlil said at the Presidential Palace complex, on Wednesday (4 February 2026).
By contrast, non-subsidised fuel prices follow the market mechanism, which is usually adjusted monthly. Thus, typically increases in global oil prices would push up the price of various Pertamax and Pertamax Plus fuels.
‘Non-subsidised fuel follows the market mechanism under the 2022 Regulation from the ESDM,’ Bahlil said.