AI Robot Population Projected to Explode, Leaving Human Workers Increasingly Sidelined
AI-powered robots are projected to exceed the global human workforce population within several decades, driven by widespread corporate adoption of artificial intelligence agents to reduce operational costs.
This warning was issued by Rob Garlick, former Head of Innovation, Technology, and Future of Work at Citi Global Insights, in an interview with CNBC. Garlick noted that current business leadership systems heavily emphasise profitability.
“We have a system of leadership within the context of economics and business that prioritises profitability,” Garlick stated. “When you combine profitability with technological advancement, we will face the most significant change in history—artificial intelligence will be capable of doing increasingly more things, with better quality, and at lower cost, thereby replacing humans,” he added.
Garlick, who recently published “AI – Anarchy or Abundance? Why the Future of Work Needs Pro-Human Leaders,” cited his research at Citi, which demonstrates that the number of AI robots will surge due to such business decisions.
“Within several decades, the number of mobile robots will exceed the working population. Add to this small AI-based agents, and the numbers will explode,” he noted.
The 2024 Citi report, led by Garlick, estimates that AI robot populations—ranging from humanoids to household cleaning robots through to autonomous vehicles—will reach 1.3 billion units by 2035, projected to increase to over 4 billion units by 2050.
The report also calculated the time required for robots to achieve break-even from labour cost savings. For example, a robot priced at $15,000 is estimated to recoup its investment in 3.8 weeks if replacing work paying $41 per hour, or 21.6 weeks for work paying $7.25 per hour. Meanwhile, a robot costing $35,000 has a payback period of 8.9 weeks for work paying $41 per hour.
“Even now, you can purchase humanoids with payback periods compared to human workers of less than 10 weeks,” Garlick told CNBC, citing data from his book. “Humans cannot compete with such an arrangement,” he concluded.