After the truce, what?

After the truce, what?

The "humanitarian pause" agreed upon in Aceh looks
increasingly more like an opportunity for both sides in the
conflict -- the Indonesian Military (TNI) and the separatist Free
Aceh Movement (GAM) -- to bide their time for the inevitable ugly
confrontation. The three-month agreement, which expired on Aug.
31, has done little to contain the violence. Instead, both sides
have used the greater part of the lull afforded by the agreement
to beef up their personnel and weaponry, and consolidate their
positions.

With this in mind, one is left to wonder what was the
objective in entering into this agreement in the first place, and
what is the objective now in extending the humanitarian pause? If
real peace is the ultimate goal of the truce agreement, we have
seen no signs either side wishing to start negotiations.

The truce may have allowed some humanitarian programs to be
implemented in Aceh to alleviate the people's suffering, even as
the fighting continued. Some people may argue inconceivably that
the violence would have been worse had it not been for the
humanitarian pause; they will say the exercise has not been a
total waste. That, however, is hardly comforting for the people
of Aceh, who continue to live in uncertainty and fear, now even
more so than before, while the people in Jakarta figure out what
to do next after extending the truce agreement.

In the absence of any formal negotiations, the government
decided in Jakarta over the weekend to unilaterally extend the
humanitarian pause for one month, setting new, tougher, terms for
GAM to comply with for a longer extension. The offer still
revolves around the humanitarian pause and its implementation.

There are no indications the government will take the matter
further than this. Even if GAM agrees to the offer, the
humanitarian pause likely will be treated by both sides the way
it has been treated for the last three months: an opportunity to
buy even more time to consolidate.

How long the two sides can keep up with this waiting game is
anybody's guess. But before an ugly confrontation erupts, the
government should use the extension of the humanitarian pause to
open negotiations with GAM, as well as other groups in Aceh, to
explore the possibility of real peace in the province.

The humanitarian pause agreement was a major breakthrough when
it was signed by representatives of Jakarta and GAM in Geneva in
May. It was the first real attempt on the part of the government
to restore peace in Aceh. The government may have come under fire
from politicians in Jakarta for giving GAM an international
platform, but it was a realistic step to take to break the
impasse, and probably the only step the government could have
made. Whether we like it or not, GAM is a force to be reckoned
with -- with real organization and real supporters and
sympathizers -- and no peace can be secured in Aceh without its
cooperation.

After making the courageous decision to recognize GAM's
existence through the signing of the agreement, however, the
government failed to follow through effectively. In fact, the
government seems to be at a total loss as to what it should do
now. The best it could come up with to date is to extend the
humanitarian pause to buy more time, something GAM will happily
accept.

At first glance, negotiations look out of the question given
the government and GAM's irreconcilable positions. Jakarta has
ruled out independence as an option, while GAM, by its very name
and definition, is a movement for an independent state.

But that is precisely the purpose of negotiations: to bridge
the gap and explore a middle ground acceptable to both sides.
More than just buying time to delay an inevitable armed
confrontation, negotiations offer a chance for a peaceful
solution.

That middle ground is essentially not that difficult to
envisage. Having recognized GAM's existence, the government
should move one step further by offering GAM the opportunity to
become a regional political party which could fight for its
independence cause through the democratic process of general
elections. In return, GAM should agree to surrender its weapons.
Ballots, rather than bullets, should determine the fate of Aceh,
whatever that fate may be.

All it takes is for the government and GAM to show the
political will to enter into negotiations; and the humanitarian
pause would be a good time to start the process.