After the truce, what?

The "humanitarian pause" agreed upon in Aceh looks increasingly more like an opportunity for both sides in the conflict -- the Indonesian Military (TNI) and the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) -- to bide their time for the inevitable ugly confrontation. The three-month agreement, which expired on Aug. 31, has done little to contain the violence. Instead, both sides have used the greater part of the lull afforded by the agreement to beef up their personnel and weaponry, and consolidate their positions.

With this in mind, one is left to wonder what was the objective in entering into this agreement in the first place, and what is the objective now in extending the humanitarian pause? If real peace is the ultimate goal of the truce agreement, we have seen no signs either side wishing to start negotiations.

The truce may have allowed some humanitarian programs to be implemented in Aceh to alleviate the people's suffering, even as the fighting continued. Some people may argue inconceivably that the violence would have been worse had it not been for the humanitarian pause; they will say the exercise has not been a total waste. That, however, is hardly comforting for the people of Aceh, who continue to live in uncertainty and fear, now even more so than before, while the people in Jakarta figure out what to do next after extending the truce agreement.

In the absence of any formal negotiations, the government decided in Jakarta over the weekend to unilaterally extend the humanitarian pause for one month, setting new, tougher, terms for GAM to comply with for a longer extension. The offer still revolves around the humanitarian pause and its implementation.

There are no indications the government will take the matter further than this. Even if GAM agrees to the offer, the humanitarian pause likely will be treated by both sides the way it has been treated for the last three months: an opportunity to buy even more time to consolidate.

How long the two sides can keep up with this waiting game is anybody's guess. But before an ugly confrontation erupts, the government should use the extension of the humanitarian pause to open negotiations with GAM, as well as other groups in Aceh, to explore the possibility of real peace in the province.

The humanitarian pause agreement was a major breakthrough when it was signed by representatives of Jakarta and GAM in Geneva in May. It was the first real attempt on the part of the government to restore peace in Aceh. The government may have come under fire from politicians in Jakarta for giving GAM an international platform, but it was a realistic step to take to break the impasse, and probably the only step the government could have made. Whether we like it or not, GAM is a force to be reckoned with -- with real organization and real supporters and sympathizers -- and no peace can be secured in Aceh without its cooperation.

After making the courageous decision to recognize GAM's existence through the signing of the agreement, however, the government failed to follow through effectively. In fact, the government seems to be at a total loss as to what it should do now. The best it could come up with to date is to extend the humanitarian pause to buy more time, something GAM will happily accept.

At first glance, negotiations look out of the question given the government and GAM's irreconcilable positions. Jakarta has ruled out independence as an option, while GAM, by its very name and definition, is a movement for an independent state.

But that is precisely the purpose of negotiations: to bridge the gap and explore a middle ground acceptable to both sides. More than just buying time to delay an inevitable armed confrontation, negotiations offer a chance for a peaceful solution.

That middle ground is essentially not that difficult to envisage. Having recognized GAM's existence, the government should move one step further by offering GAM the opportunity to become a regional political party which could fight for its independence cause through the democratic process of general elections. In return, GAM should agree to surrender its weapons. Ballots, rather than bullets, should determine the fate of Aceh, whatever that fate may be.

All it takes is for the government and GAM to show the political will to enter into negotiations; and the humanitarian pause would be a good time to start the process.