After 2% Collapse, What is the Projection for IHSG Movement Today?
Jakarta – The escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has triggered significant turmoil in the Indonesian stock market, with the Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) falling more than 2% in a single day.
At Monday’s close (2 March 2026), the IHSG plunged 218.66 points or -2.66% to 8,016.83.
From a technical perspective, the IHSG remains relatively stable above the psychological 8,000 level and continues to trade above the 200-day moving average (MA200), reflecting that medium-term trend momentum is intact. However, the strengthening momentum is beginning to weaken as the positive histogram on the MACD contracts, indicating the potential formation of a Death Cross pattern. Should selling pressure persist and the index breaches below 8,000, further correction space is anticipated towards the next support level in the range of 7,860–7,900.
Domestically, inflationary pressures have re-emerged in February 2026 with monthly inflation of 0.68% following a deflation of 0.15% in January 2026. Price increases were primarily driven by food, beverages, and tobacco, which typically see rises approaching the Ramadan period due to increased consumer spending.
On a year-on-year basis, inflation accelerated significantly to 4.76% compared to 3.55% the previous month, marking the highest level in nearly three years since March 2023. This acceleration was also influenced by low base effects, given that early last year saw an electricity tariff discount policy that had previously restrained price increases.
On the external front, the trade balance surplus narrowed to US$0.95 billion in January 2026, substantially lower than US$3.49 billion in the same period the previous year. This was driven by imports surging 18.21% year-on-year, whilst exports grew only modestly at 3.39%.
Nevertheless, the manufacturing sector continued to show solid expansion. Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI increased to 53.8 in February 2026 from 52.6 in January 2026, reflecting robust production activity, particularly supported by improving domestic demand.
Geopolitical sentiment continues to influence markets due to escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran following reports of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This situation has triggered market concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region.
US President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that military operations in Iran would continue following the deaths of three US military personnel. This statement has worsened global market sentiment and prompted investors to shift towards safe-haven assets.