Acehnese are giving Susilo another chance

Acehnese are giving Susilo another chance

Saiful Mahdi
Ithaca, New York

The people have high expectations of the popular
president-in-waiting Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, although some are
skeptical of his capabilities. It is expected that he will wage
an all-out war against corruption -- as he promised -- and bring
about economic reform.

Foreign analysts, like Jeffrey Winters of Northwestern
University, have put together a must-do agenda for Susilo.
Topping their list is that he should "speak clearly about
terrorists operating in Indonesia" (AP, Sept. 21). Indeed, he has
battles to fight on many fronts.

For the Acehnese, however, the presence of the Indonesian
Military (TNI) in Aceh since May 19, 2003, is not a war that they
want to see continued. The so-termed integrated operation has
been implemented for 16 months in Aceh, and has not won the
confidence of the Acehnese.

Still, with no exit strategy, the operation has been mainly
militaristic. The casualties includes 1,164 victims of violence
or human rights abuses -- but, only 662 civilian casualties,
according to the TNI.

This figure does not include the deaths of 2,879 people, the
detention of 1,798, or the surrender of 1,954 people, whom the
TNI claims are members of GAM, or sympathizers.

Those figures, interestingly, add up to more than 5,000, the
number of armed GAM members the TNI set out to crush at the
beginning of martial law. In addition, there are at least 159
casualties on the TNI side.

For the Acehnese, especially civilians, the conflict is an
unbearable one. The economic and humanitarian operations that
were supposed to be "integrated" into overall operations were not
effective, or have been crippled by corruption.

Poverty levels have worsened in Aceh, despite trillions of
rupiah budgeted under the special autonomy scheme and poured in
through the integrated operation. In 2001, the poverty level was
around 30.43 percent, or 1.2 million out of about 4.1 million
people in the province. Before the conflict, the poverty level
was "only" 26.50 percent.

Through the first and second rounds of the presidential
election, the Acehnese have sent a clear message: They want
drastic change in their region. They want the conflict to be
settled through dialog and the rule of law, and they want the
shameful corruption of local bureaucrats to be seriously
addressed.

In the first round, the Acehnese voted overwhelmingly for
Amien Rais, a civilian candidate whom the Acehnese may have
considered reformist and less likely to resort to militaristic
ways of bringing peace to Aceh. More than 56 percent of ballots
cast in the province were for Amien, far more than for the
incumbent, President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who received just
5.6 percent of the vote.

Megawati once pledged, in front of thousands of Acehnese,
that she would not let any more blood spill in Aceh, but
eventually she was the one who imposed martial law -- which for
the Acehnese was but another name for war.

Curiously, she received half the votes of Wiranto (9.6
percent), a supposedly more hostile candidate for the Acehnese,
due to his past in the military.

In the second round, it was also no surprise that Susilo
garnered an overwhelming 80 percent of the vote in the province,
compared to his returns of 24 percent in the first round.

Apart from the Acehnese people's disappointment in Megawati,
Susilo's popularity is rooted in his reputation as a moderate
general in his time. The Acehnese may believe there is still hope
with Susilo, no matter how slim.

Already, Susilo has sent positive signals for a return to
dialog in Aceh. Two days after the election, he was widely quoted
by the media as saying, (the conflict) "must be resolved in a
fair manner and as peacefully as possibly".

His commitment, however, remains to be seen. One of his main
challenges will come from a hostile legislature, in which his
party, the Democratic Party, only control about 8 percent of
seats. Also, as a retired military man, he faces a potentially
difficult relationship with the military, due to a possible
conflict of interests.

The breakdown of the peace accord between Indonesia and GAM is
yet another problem. It is understandable, therefore, if GAM
appears to be skeptical about the leadership change in Indonesia.
But, the people of Aceh in general, as proven by their votes on
election day, seem to be looking for any path toward peace in
Aceh. Although not as convinced, civil society groups and non-
governmental organizations are showing similar feelings.

For changes to be made through dialog, public input is
necessary. But, the public must also respect whatever decisions
are made and the process of the dialog itself.

The involvement of the international community is unavoidable
if the dialog is to be decisive. A foreign country with limited
interests perhaps, such as New Zealand, the Scandinavian
countries or UN bodies, could make for a good mediator.

This is not to undermine, for example, the United States'
efforts for peace in Aceh, as conveyed by its ambassador
designate to Indonesia B. Lynn Pascoe in front of the Senate
Committee on Foreign Relations. But some factions would be less
receptive to the U.S. Nevertheless, as the single superpower in
the world, the U.S. role remains vital in mobilizing resources
for peace and democracy in Aceh and Indonesia.

All in all, Susilo has the necessary tools to realize his
commitment to a peaceful resolution in Aceh. With a popular
mandate in his hands, it is up to him to prove his commitment. He
also has to prove whether he is a "moderate general", as
suggested by his supporters; or the real architect of martial
law, which justified violence in Aceh, as alleged by some rights
groups.

One thing is for sure, the Acehnese are always ready to give
their leaders a chance. They gave Sukarno, Soeharto, and Megawati
a chance. But once promises are broken, the Acehnese will not
only lose faith, but take up arms in revolt. In the case of
Susilo, given his background, the Acehnese are indeed giving him
a second chance.

The writer is the Acehnese Institute coordinator, and is
currently studying Policy Analysis and Modeling at Cornell
University.