Acehnese are giving Susilo another chance<\/p>\n
Saiful Mahdi
\nIthaca, New York<\/p>\n
The people have high expectations of the popular
\npresident-in-waiting Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, although some are
\nskeptical of his capabilities. It is expected that he will wage
\nan all-out war against corruption -- as he promised -- and bring
\nabout economic reform.<\/p>\n
Foreign analysts, like Jeffrey Winters of Northwestern
\nUniversity, have put together a must-do agenda for Susilo.
\nTopping their list is that he should \"speak clearly about
\nterrorists operating in Indonesia\" (AP, Sept. 21). Indeed, he has
\nbattles to fight on many fronts.<\/p>\n
For the Acehnese, however, the presence of the Indonesian
\nMilitary (TNI) in Aceh since May 19, 2003, is not a war that they
\nwant to see continued. The so-termed integrated operation has
\nbeen implemented for 16 months in Aceh, and has not won the
\nconfidence of the Acehnese.<\/p>\n
Still, with no exit strategy, the operation has been mainly
\nmilitaristic. The casualties includes 1,164 victims of violence
\nor human rights abuses -- but, only 662 civilian casualties,
\naccording to the TNI.<\/p>\n
This figure does not include the deaths of 2,879 people, the
\ndetention of 1,798, or the surrender of 1,954 people, whom the
\nTNI claims are members of GAM, or sympathizers.<\/p>\n
Those figures, interestingly, add up to more than 5,000, the
\nnumber of armed GAM members the TNI set out to crush at the
\nbeginning of martial law. In addition, there are at least 159
\ncasualties on the TNI side.<\/p>\n
For the Acehnese, especially civilians, the conflict is an
\nunbearable one. The economic and humanitarian operations that
\nwere supposed to be \"integrated\" into overall operations were not
\neffective, or have been crippled by corruption.<\/p>\n
Poverty levels have worsened in Aceh, despite trillions of
\nrupiah budgeted under the special autonomy scheme and poured in
\nthrough the integrated operation. In 2001, the poverty level was
\naround 30.43 percent, or 1.2 million out of about 4.1 million
\npeople in the province. Before the conflict, the poverty level
\nwas \"only\" 26.50 percent.<\/p>\n
Through the first and second rounds of the presidential
\nelection, the Acehnese have sent a clear message: They want
\ndrastic change in their region. They want the conflict to be
\nsettled through dialog and the rule of law, and they want the
\nshameful corruption of local bureaucrats to be seriously
\naddressed.<\/p>\n
In the first round, the Acehnese voted overwhelmingly for
\nAmien Rais, a civilian candidate whom the Acehnese may have
\nconsidered reformist and less likely to resort to militaristic
\nways of bringing peace to Aceh. More than 56 percent of ballots
\ncast in the province were for Amien, far more than for the
\nincumbent, President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who received just
\n5.6 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n
Megawati once pledged, in front of thousands of Acehnese,
\nthat she would not let any more blood spill in Aceh, but
\neventually she was the one who imposed martial law -- which for
\nthe Acehnese was but another name for war.<\/p>\n
Curiously, she received half the votes of Wiranto (9.6
\npercent), a supposedly more hostile candidate for the Acehnese,
\ndue to his past in the military.<\/p>\n
In the second round, it was also no surprise that Susilo
\ngarnered an overwhelming 80 percent of the vote in the province,
\ncompared to his returns of 24 percent in the first round.<\/p>\n
Apart from the Acehnese people's disappointment in Megawati,
\nSusilo's popularity is rooted in his reputation as a moderate
\ngeneral in his time. The Acehnese may believe there is still hope
\nwith Susilo, no matter how slim.<\/p>\n
Already, Susilo has sent positive signals for a return to
\ndialog in Aceh. Two days after the election, he was widely quoted
\nby the media as saying, (the conflict) \"must be resolved in a
\nfair manner and as peacefully as possibly\".<\/p>\n
His commitment, however, remains to be seen. One of his main
\nchallenges will come from a hostile legislature, in which his
\nparty, the Democratic Party, only control about 8 percent of
\nseats. Also, as a retired military man, he faces a potentially
\ndifficult relationship with the military, due to a possible
\nconflict of interests.<\/p>\n
The breakdown of the peace accord between Indonesia and GAM is
\nyet another problem. It is understandable, therefore, if GAM
\nappears to be skeptical about the leadership change in Indonesia.
\nBut, the people of Aceh in general, as proven by their votes on
\nelection day, seem to be looking for any path toward peace in
\nAceh. Although not as convinced, civil society groups and non-
\ngovernmental organizations are showing similar feelings.<\/p>\n
For changes to be made through dialog, public input is
\nnecessary. But, the public must also respect whatever decisions
\nare made and the process of the dialog itself.<\/p>\n
The involvement of the international community is unavoidable
\nif the dialog is to be decisive. A foreign country with limited
\ninterests perhaps, such as New Zealand, the Scandinavian
\ncountries or UN bodies, could make for a good mediator.<\/p>\n
This is not to undermine, for example, the United States'
\nefforts for peace in Aceh, as conveyed by its ambassador
\ndesignate to Indonesia B. Lynn Pascoe in front of the Senate
\nCommittee on Foreign Relations. But some factions would be less
\nreceptive to the U.S. Nevertheless, as the single superpower in
\nthe world, the U.S. role remains vital in mobilizing resources
\nfor peace and democracy in Aceh and Indonesia.<\/p>\n
All in all, Susilo has the necessary tools to realize his
\ncommitment to a peaceful resolution in Aceh. With a popular
\nmandate in his hands, it is up to him to prove his commitment. He
\nalso has to prove whether he is a \"moderate general\", as
\nsuggested by his supporters; or the real architect of martial
\nlaw, which justified violence in Aceh, as alleged by some rights
\ngroups.<\/p>\n
One thing is for sure, the Acehnese are always ready to give
\ntheir leaders a chance. They gave Sukarno, Soeharto, and Megawati
\na chance. But once promises are broken, the Acehnese will not
\nonly lose faith, but take up arms in revolt. In the case of
\nSusilo, given his background, the Acehnese are indeed giving him
\na second chance.<\/p>\n
The writer is the Acehnese Institute coordinator, and is
\ncurrently studying Policy Analysis and Modeling at Cornell
\nUniversity.<\/p>",
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